95% — Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers
Leader: New York at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 15 contracts · $52 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-27 07:40:53 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 15 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 97% probability reflects strong market confidence that women's professional basketball playoffs will proceed as scheduled in 2026. The high likelihood stems from stable league operations and no indication of labor disputes, scheduling conflicts, or other disruptions that would prevent qualification rounds from occurring. Market pricing shows concentrated bets on specific series outcomes—particularly San Antonio and Oklahoma City advancing in round two and Toronto winning a close first-round series—suggesting traders believe these matchups and results are probable. The probability would shift downward if unexpected cancellations, lockouts, or operational issues emerge. Resolution depends on whether the actual playoff bracket and early-round results align with current market expectations through June 2026.

Key factors:
- San Antonio and Oklahoma City series prices (34-36¢ for 4-0 wins) indicate these teams are heavily favored to advance, implying high confidence in the overall playoff format proceeding
- Toronto-Cleveland first-round contract at 27¢ for a 4-3 outcome shows expectation of competitive early-round play, supporting the baseline assumption of normal playoff operations
- Combined volume across top five contracts ($47,936 in 24-hour volume) reflects meaningful participation but concentration in a few specific series rather than broad market depth
- The 4-point gap between leader (97%) and runner-up (93%) is modest, indicating some underlying disagreement about playoff certainty or specific outcomes
- No visible contracts pricing severe disruptions (lockouts, cancellations, or league suspensions), suggesting traders assign negligible probability to worst-case scenarios

Contracts:
- Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: New York — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Las Vegas — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Dallas — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Atlanta — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Minnesota — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Indiana — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Golden State — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Women's Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Washington — 57¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 35%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-27T07:20:48.780Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnbaplayoff
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Women's%20Pro%20Basketball%20Playoff%20Qualifiers
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev