15% — Will Olivia Miles win Rookie of the Year Kalshi 15% · 9 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:34 UTC Why this matters: This 18% probability reflects the likelihood that Olivia Miles wins the Rookie of the Year award. The current estimate appears driven by competition from other strong offensive and defensive rookie candidates, with Carson Beck priced at 4¢ and several defensive prospects including Rueben Bain Jr. at 17¢ showing material support. Miles' probability could increase if she demonstrates exceptional performance metrics relative to peers throughout the 2026 season, or decrease if other rookies establish clearer statistical leads. The market will resolve once the Rookie of the Year award is officially announced, typically occurring after the regular season concludes in early 2027. Trading volume across these contracts suggests moderate interest but no consensus frontrunner, with probabilities distributed across multiple candidates rather than concentrated on a single player. Key factors: - Offensive and defensive rookie candidates are fragmented across multiple contracts, with Carson Beck at 4¢ and Rueben Bain Jr. at 17¢ representing the highest individual probabilities - Rookie of the Year awards typically depend on cumulative season statistics and voting panels, which will not be finalized until after the 2026 NFL regular season ends - Miles' 18% probability places her outside the top individual contract prices shown, suggesting market participants view other rookies as stronger candidates based on current performance - Trading volume is relatively light across these markets ($2,357 in 24-hour volume across the top 5 contracts), indicating limited certainty or engagement from traders - The award voting typically occurs in December-January, providing approximately 7-8 months for player performance and injury status to shift competitive positioning Contracts: - Will Olivia Miles win Rookie of the Year?: Olivia Miles — 86¢ Kalshi $896 (weight 71%) - Will Azzi Fudd win Rookie of the Year?: Azzi Fudd — 4¢ Kalshi $364 (weight 29%) - Will Cotie McMahon win Rookie of the Year?: Cotie McMahon — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Flau'jae Johnson win Rookie of the Year?: Flau'jae Johnson — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Gianna Kneepkens win Rookie of the Year?: Gianna Kneepkens — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Kiki Rice win Rookie of the Year?: Kiki Rice — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Pauline Astier win Rookie of the Year?: Pauline Astier — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tie/Co-Winners win Rookie of the Year?: Tie/Co-Winners — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:51.041Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnbaroy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Olivia%20Miles%20win%20Rookie%20of%20the%20Year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev