12% — Will Olivia Miles win Rookie of the Year
Kalshi 12% · 11 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:18 UTC

Why this matters:
This 18% probability reflects the likelihood that Olivia Miles wins the Rookie of the Year award. The current estimate appears driven by competition from other strong offensive and defensive rookie candidates, with Carson Beck priced at 4¢ and several defensive prospects including Rueben Bain Jr. at 17¢ showing material support. Miles' probability could increase if she demonstrates exceptional performance metrics relative to peers throughout the 2026 season, or decrease if other rookies establish clearer statistical leads. The market will resolve once the Rookie of the Year award is officially announced, typically occurring after the regular season concludes in early 2027. Trading volume across these contracts suggests moderate interest but no consensus frontrunner, with probabilities distributed across multiple candidates rather than concentrated on a single player.

Key factors:
- Offensive and defensive rookie candidates are fragmented across multiple contracts, with Carson Beck at 4¢ and Rueben Bain Jr. at 17¢ representing the highest individual probabilities
- Rookie of the Year awards typically depend on cumulative season statistics and voting panels, which will not be finalized until after the 2026 NFL regular season ends
- Miles' 18% probability places her outside the top individual contract prices shown, suggesting market participants view other rookies as stronger candidates based on current performance
- Trading volume is relatively light across these markets ($2,357 in 24-hour volume across the top 5 contracts), indicating limited certainty or engagement from traders
- The award voting typically occurs in December-January, providing approximately 7-8 months for player performance and injury status to shift competitive positioning

Contracts:
- Will Azzi Fudd win Rookie of the Year?: Azzi Fudd — 18¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 49%)
- Will Olivia Miles win Rookie of the Year?: Olivia Miles — 32¢ Kalshi $925 (weight 23%)
- Will Flau'jae Johnson win Rookie of the Year?: Flau'jae Johnson — 19¢ Kalshi $533 (weight 13%)
- Will Georgia Amoore win Rookie of the Year?: Georgia Amoore — 6¢ Kalshi $300 (weight 7%)
- Will Lauren Betts win Rookie of the Year?: Lauren Betts — 22¢ Kalshi $254 (weight 6%)
- Will Raven Johnson win Rookie of the Year?: Raven Johnson — 7¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 1%)
- Will Awa Fam win Rookie of the Year?: Awa Fam — 5¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%)
- Will Ta'Niya Latson win Rookie of the Year?: Ta'Niya Latson — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnbaroy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Olivia%20Miles%20win%20Rookie%20of%20the%20Year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev