84% — Women's Pro Basketball Semifinals Qualifiers
Leader: Minnesota at 84% · Kalshi 84% · 12 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 04:26:25 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that one of five women's professional basketball teams will advance to the semifinals. The 59% contract price for the leading team indicates moderately confident odds, with Seattle, Phoenix, and Connecticut showing the most trading activity. The market has priced in uncertainties around regular-season performance, playoff matchups, and injury status heading into the postseason. The primary catalyst for movement will be playoff games themselves—as teams progress or are eliminated, contract prices will sharply realign. Tournament results over the next 2-4 weeks will resolve most uncertainty, with seeding, head-to-head matchups, and late-season roster decisions all influencing which teams reach the semifinals. Current spreads suggest the favorite has a meaningful but not overwhelming advantage.

Key factors:
- The leading contract trades at 59 cents versus 24-53 cents for competitors, indicating concentration of probability but not consensus dominance
- Seattle shows highest trading volume ($1,292 in 24 hours) despite lowest price (24 cents), suggesting either contrarian interest or volatility around that outcome
- Phoenix and Connecticut both trade near 43-46 cents with minimal volume, indicating settled but uncertain positioning
- Kalshi's 10 contracts span five named teams, meaning the market has fragmented confidence across multiple potential qualifiers rather than pricing one team as dominant
- Washington and Las Vegas trade at minimal volumes ($20 and $10 respectively), suggesting lowest perceived probability of semifinal qualification

Contracts:
- Women's Pro Basketball Semifinals Qualifiers: Minnesota — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Women's Pro Basketball Semifinals Qualifiers: Las Vegas — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Women's Pro Basketball Semifinals Qualifiers: Connecticut — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Women's Pro Basketball Semifinals Qualifiers: Washington — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Women's Pro Basketball Semifinals Qualifiers: Phoenix — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Women's Pro Basketball Semifinals Qualifiers: New York — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Women's Pro Basketball Semifinals Qualifiers: Golden State — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Women's Pro Basketball Semifinals Qualifiers: Los Angeles — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T04:20:49.593Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnbasemifinal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Women's%20Pro%20Basketball%20Semifinals%20Qualifiers
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev