24% — Los Angeles wins by over 10.5 points
Kalshi 24% · 11 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:08 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether Los Angeles will win a game by more than 10.5 points. At 18% probability, the market currently assesses this outcome as unlikely but possible. The low probability reflects that double-digit victories are relatively rare in competitive matchups. The main drivers of this probability are Los Angeles's current roster strength and recent performance metrics compared to their opponent, along with home/away status and any recent injuries. The resolution will depend entirely on the final score differential when the game concludes. Related contracts suggest uncertainty around whether Los Angeles will win at all, with some indicating closer point totals are more probable than blowouts.

Key factors:
- Los Angeles's average point differential in recent games compared to historical data for similar matchups
- Opponent's defensive ranking and offensive efficiency in recent contests
- Home court advantage status and any applicable travel schedule factors
- Current injury reports for key players on both rosters
- Whether the line movement on this contract has been trending up or down over the past 24-48 hours, indicating shifting expectations

Contracts:
- Indiana wins by over 5.5 points?: Indiana wins by over 5.5 points — 49¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 75%)
- Chicago wins by over 3.5 points?: Chicago wins by over 3.5 points — 57¢ Kalshi $251 (weight 14%)
- Las Vegas wins by over 6.5 points?: Las Vegas wins by over 6.5 points — 53¢ Kalshi $89 (weight 5%)
- Dallas wins by over 3.5 points?: Dallas wins by over 3.5 points — 5¢ Kalshi $51 (weight 3%)
- Atlanta wins by over 2.5 points?: Atlanta wins by over 2.5 points — 53¢ Kalshi $48 (weight 3%)
- Phoenix wins by over 3.5 points?: Phoenix wins by over 3.5 points — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Chicago wins by over 8.5 points?: Chicago wins by over 8.5 points — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Atlanta wins by over 7.5 points?: Atlanta wins by over 7.5 points — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnbaspread
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Los%20Angeles%20wins%20by%20over%2010.5%20points
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev