56% — Washington vs Atlanta
Kalshi 56% · 20 contracts · $18K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:05:03 UTC

Why this matters:
This 17% probability represents the market's assessment that Washington will win an upcoming matchup against Atlanta. The odds heavily favor Atlanta at 72 cents, indicating either significant strength from the visiting team or weakness from Washington as the apparent home team. Trading volume on the winner contract ($409 in 24 hours) suggests moderate interest from bettors. The probability could shift based on team performance trends, injury reports, or roster changes in the days leading up to the game. Point-total markets show minimal activity, with traders pricing high-scoring outcomes at low probability, suggesting expectations for a closer, lower-scoring contest. Resolution will occur when the game is played and final results are recorded.

Key factors:
- Atlanta is priced at 72 cents to win versus Washington at 27 cents, a roughly 2.7:1 odds ratio favoring Atlanta
- Winner contract volume of $409 in 24 hours indicates moderate but not exceptional betting interest compared to major matchups
- Point-total markets show minimal trading volume ($0 across all three spread levels), suggesting low confidence in specific scoring predictions
- The 17% Washington probability implies bettors consider them significant underdogs, likely due to recent performance, matchup dynamics, or roster composition
- No injury reports, schedule changes, or other major catalysts are reflected in available contract data as of the current observation point

Contracts:
- Atlanta vs Golden State: Over 164.5 points scored — 48¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 28%)
- Atlanta vs Golden State: Over 173.5 points scored — 27¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 22%)
- Washington vs Connecticut: Over 164.5 points scored — 46¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 16%)
- Atlanta vs Golden State: Over 161.5 points scored — 55¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 9%)
- Atlanta vs Golden State: Over 155.5 points scored — 70¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 8%)
- Atlanta vs Golden State: Over 152.5 points scored — 75¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%)
- Portland vs Chicago: Over 172.5 points scored — 50¢ Kalshi $864 (weight 5%)
- Washington vs Connecticut: Over 161.5 points scored — 54¢ Kalshi $442 (weight 2%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T05:20:49.000Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "56% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnbatotal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Washington%20vs%20Atlanta
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev