48% — Will the Connecticut Sun Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 10 games this season Kalshi 48% · 14 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:29 UTC Why this matters: The market implies an 87% probability that the Connecticut Sun will win at least 40 games this season. This reflects confidence in the team's performance, though the contract structure reveals meaningful uncertainty: the 30-win threshold sits at 75%, suggesting markets discount scenarios involving significant mid-season injury or trading activity. The primary drivers are roster continuity—retention of key players during the offseason—and injury status entering the stretch run. The resolution point is the regular season conclusion in September 2026, when win totals will be finalized. Current implied probabilities suggest markets view a 40-win finish as more likely than not, but assign material probability to underperformance scenarios, which would be resolved by cumulative game outcomes over the remaining months. Key factors: - Roster composition and injury status of core players will directly affect win rate; any significant roster changes or season-ending injuries would shift probabilities downward - Market prices show a material drop from 87% (40+ wins) to 75% (30+ wins), indicating concentrated uncertainty between 30-40 wins rather than catastrophic failure - The 10-win threshold trades at 50¢ versus 87¢ for 40-wins, reflecting extremely low probability of severe underperformance but non-zero tail risk - Season outcomes depend on consistent performance across remaining games; early-season momentum or slumps will provide empirical data that adjusts probabilities - Regular season ends in September 2026, providing definitive resolution; interim standings updates through July-August will generate the most significant probability movements Contracts: - Will the Chicago Sky Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 15 games this season?: 15+ wins — 52¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 78%) - Will the Los Angeles Sparks Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 20 games this season?: 20+ wins — 49¢ Kalshi $360 (weight 16%) - Will the Seattle Storm Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 15 games this season?: 15+ wins — 6¢ Kalshi $97 (weight 4%) - Will the Chicago Sky Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 20 games this season?: 20+ wins — 6¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 1%) - Will the Minnesota Lynx Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 15 games this season?: 15+ wins — 91¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 0%) - Will the Seattle Storm Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 20 games this season?: 20+ wins — 3¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%) - Will the Portland Fire Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 20 games this season?: 20+ wins — 21¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%) - Will the Atlanta Dream Women's Pro Basketball team win at least 30 games this season?: 30+ wins — 66¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:49.729Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnbawins Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Connecticut%20Sun%20Women's%20Pro%20Basketball%20team%20win%20at%20least%2010%20games%20this%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev