25% — Will Portland have the worst record in the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball regular season Kalshi 25% · 4 contracts · $864 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 07:34:29 UTC Why this matters: This contract represents the probability that Portland finishes the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball regular season with the worst record among all teams. At 19%, Portland is priced as the third-most likely team to finish last, behind Connecticut (45%) and roughly tied with Chicago (5%) and Seattle (4%). The current probability reflects expectations about roster strength, coaching changes, and injury status heading into the season. Key drivers of this probability would include Portland's draft acquisitions, free-agent moves, and how injuries develop throughout the regular season. The resolution will occur at the end of the regular season when final standings are determined, making ongoing performance data the primary source of uncertainty reduction. Key factors: - Portland's final regular season win-loss record compared to all other WNBA teams - Connecticut's higher implied probability (45%) suggests market participants view them as more likely to finish last despite being the Eastern Conference favorites in some preseason projections - Chicago is priced significantly lower (5%) despite also being considered a lottery team, indicating different market expectations about their roster composition - Changes to Portland's roster, coaching staff, or injury situation between now and season end will directly impact their likelihood of finishing with the worst record - The aggregate probability across all teams should theoretically equal 100%, but comparing individual team probabilities shows relative market confidence in Portland's performance versus direct competitors Contracts: - Will Seattle have the worst record in the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball regular season?: Seattle — 68¢ Kalshi $465 (weight 54%) - Will Connecticut have the worst record in the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball regular season?: Connecticut — 25¢ Kalshi $399 (weight 46%) - Will Chicago have the worst record in the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball regular season?: Chicago — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Phoenix have the worst record in the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball regular season?: Phoenix — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:51.285Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wnbaworstrec Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Portland%20have%20the%20worst%20record%20in%20the%202026%20Women's%20Pro%20Basketball%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev