30% — 2026 Women's French Open Winner
Leader: Aryna Sabalenka at 30% · Polymarket 30% · 6 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:53:28 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 32% probability represents the market's assessment that one specific player (currently the favorite) will win the 2026 Women's French Open. This level reflects uncertainty about whether the leading contender can maintain form through the tournament or if competitors will peak at the right time. The main factors driving the probability are the favorite's recent match results, injury status, and head-to-head records against other top seeds. The tournament itself, scheduled for late May/early June 2026, will directly resolve this outcome; until then, probabilities will shift based on pre-tournament performance at smaller events and any reported fitness issues among top players.

Key factors:
- Current favorite's win rate and ranking points in 2026 clay-court season leading into Roland Garros
- Injury reports or withdrawals among the top 5 seeded players in the weeks before the tournament
- Historical performance data: how often has the pre-tournament favorite won the Women's French Open in recent years
- Head-to-head records between the current market leader and other top contenders at clay-court events
- Seeding and draw structure once the official bracket is released, typically one week before play begins

Contracts:
- 2026 Women's French Open Winner: Aryna Sabalenka — 30¢ Polymarket $418 (weight 35%)
- 2026 Women's French Open Winner: Iga Świątek — 25¢ Polymarket $134 (weight 11%)
- 2026 Women's French Open Winner: Elena Rybakina — 11¢ Polymarket $107 (weight 9%)
- 2026 Women's French Open Winner: Coco Gauff — 10¢ Polymarket $119 (weight 10%)
- 2026 Women's French Open Winner: Mirra Andreeva — 7¢ Polymarket $126 (weight 11%)
- 2026 Women's French Open Winner: Marta Kostyuk — 3¢ Polymarket $275 (weight 23%)

Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/womens-french-open-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2026%20Women's%20French%20Open%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev