8% — Will AI be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026 Kalshi 8% · 4 contracts · $1 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 05:52:12 UTC Why this matters: This probability estimates the likelihood that Merriam-Webster will select an AI-related word as its Word of the Year for 2026. Merriam-Webster has designated a single word annually since 2003, typically choosing terms that reflect significant cultural moments or linguistic shifts. The 10% probability suggests skepticism about AI being selected, despite the technology's prominence. Market participants appear to favor competing words like "larping" (14%) over AI-related terms, indicating fragmentation among potential candidates. The main factors influencing this probability are the breadth of linguistic contenders in 2026 and whether any single AI term gains sufficient cultural prominence by year-end to distinguish itself as the defining word of the year. Merriam-Webster will announce its selection in early December 2026. Key factors: - Merriam-Webster's selection criteria prioritize cultural significance and widespread adoption rather than technological importance alone; AI usage remains normalized rather than novel by late 2026 - Competing candidates like 'larping' (14%) and 'brainrot' (11%) command higher probabilities, suggesting the prediction market views non-AI words as more likely contenders - AI-related terminology would need to achieve notable linguistic evolution or cultural meaning shift specific to 2026 to compete against other emerging slang or cultural phenomena - The announcement occurs in early December 2026; no interim data releases will clarify Merriam-Webster's selection process before that final date - Historical precedent shows Merriam-Webster rarely selects technology-centric terms unless paired with distinct cultural implications beyond technical advancement Contracts: - Will Brainrot be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026?: Brainrot — 11¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 100%) - Will Vibe be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026?: Vibe — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will larping be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026?: larping — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Performative be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026?: Performative — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T04:20:51.163Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wordoftheyear Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20AI%20be%20in%20the%20%E2%80%9CWord%20of%20the%20Year%E2%80%9D%20as%20designated%20by%20Merriam-Webster%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev