14% — Will AI be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026 Kalshi 14% · 4 contracts · $11 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:37 UTC Why this matters: This question asks whether Merriam-Webster will select a word related to artificial intelligence as its 2026 Word of the Year. At 8%, the market suggests this is unlikely, though not impossible. The probability reflects two competing dynamics: AI's continued prominence in technology and culture could drive selection, but Merriam-Webster historically chooses words with broad cultural resonance beyond tech sectors. The announcement typically occurs in November, providing seven months of clarity on what linguistic trends dominate public discourse. Key factors include whether AI-related terminology becomes more embedded in everyday language, how competing major events (political, cultural, social) generate alternative word candidates, and Merriam-Webster's historical tendency to favor words addressing universal human experiences over industry-specific terminology. The outcome will depend on whether AI maintains its novelty status or becomes so commonplace that alternative words better capture 2026's defining moment. Key factors: - Merriam-Webster's historical pattern of selecting words reflecting broad cultural moments rather than technology sector terminology - Degree to which AI-related language becomes embedded in everyday conversation versus remaining tech-concentrated discourse - Emergence of competing major events or social phenomena in 2026 that generate strong alternative word candidates - Whether AI terminology evolves in 2026 (new terms entering mainstream) or remains linguistically stable - Merriam-Webster's 2026 Word of the Year announcement occurring in November, providing resolution based on year-long linguistic trends Contracts: - Will AI be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026?: AI — 16¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 100%) - Will Brainrot be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026?: Brainrot — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lore be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026?: Lore — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Vibe be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026?: Vibe — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.209Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wordoftheyear Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20AI%20be%20in%20the%20%E2%80%9CWord%20of%20the%20Year%E2%80%9D%20as%20designated%20by%20Merriam-Webster%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev