4% — Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Kalshi 4% · 15 contracts · $580K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 11:01:47 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Spain win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? — 12¢ Kalshi $221K (weight 38%)
- Will France win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? — 12¢ Kalshi $59K (weight 10%)
- Will Mexico win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? — 2¢ Kalshi $45K (weight 8%)
- Will Argentina win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? — 5¢ Kalshi $36K (weight 6%)
- Will USA win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? — 2¢ Kalshi $36K (weight 6%)
- Will Germany win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? — 6¢ Kalshi $32K (weight 5%)
- Will Qatar win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? — 1¢ Kalshi $25K (weight 4%)
- Will Portugal win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? — 5¢ Kalshi $20K (weight 4%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-19T06:43:23.947Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/world-cup-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%202026%20FIFA%20World%20Cup%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev