54% — World Cup Group F Winner
Leader: Netherlands at 54% · Polymarket 54% · 4 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:46:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The Netherlands is priced at 55% to win World Cup Group F, meaning markets estimate better than even odds they finish ahead of Japan (26%), Sweden (14%), and Tunisia (6%). This reflects both UEFA ranking strength and recent tournament performance. Key drivers include head-to-head records, current team form, and injury status entering the group stage. The probability will shift materially once Group F matches begin and results clarify relative performance—expected matches start around mid-June 2026. Early wins would confirm favorites; unexpected defeats would redistribute probability toward contenders. Trading volume is substantial ($3.5k daily in the Netherlands contract), indicating active price discovery.

Key factors:
- Netherlands holds a UEFA ranking advantage over all group opponents and has qualified for recent World Cup tournaments, historically suggesting stronger group-stage performance
- Japan finished second in qualifying but has limited recent tournament experience; its 26% price depends on competitive depth relative to European opposition
- Group stage outcomes depend entirely on match results beginning in June 2026; current pricing is pre-competitive and will shift sharply after opening games
- Head-to-head historical records and recent friendlies provide limited signal; World Cup group performance often diverges from rankings based on tactical adjustments and in-tournament form
- Injuries to key players in any squad before June 2026 would materially alter competitive balance; squad health status is not fully reflected in current pricing

Contracts:
- World Cup Group F Winner: Netherlands — 54¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 49%)
- World Cup Group F Winner: Japan — 28¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 32%)
- World Cup Group F Winner: Sweden — 14¢ Polymarket $382 (weight 9%)
- World Cup Group F Winner: Tunisia — 6¢ Polymarket $437 (weight 10%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:10.471Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "54% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/world-cup-group-f-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=World%20Cup%20Group%20F%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev