63% — World Cup Group G Winner
Leader: Belgium at 63% · Polymarket 63% · 4 contracts · $12K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 07:44:55 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability represents the likelihood that Belgium finishes first in their World Cup group ahead of three other competitors. Belgium's 68% implied probability reflects expectations based on FIFA rankings, recent performance, and group composition. The main factors supporting this position are Belgium's historical strength and perceived squad quality relative to rivals. Factors that could shift this probability include pre-tournament roster changes, injuries to key players, or updated assessments of opponent capabilities after qualification rounds. The outcome will be determined by the group's matches, which are scheduled during the tournament's group stage. Market participants are pricing in Belgium as the clear favorite, though Egypt at 19% represents meaningful uncertainty about whether Belgium will definitively top the group.

Key factors:
- Belgium's FIFA world ranking and squad depth relative to Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand at the time of group play
- Recent win-loss records and goal differential performance of each team in World Cup qualifying or equivalent tournaments
- Injury status and squad availability for Belgium's key players in the weeks before group-stage matches
- Head-to-head historical records between Belgium and each group opponent in competitive matches
- Egypt's strong domestic league performance and whether they field their strongest available squad for the tournament

Contracts:
- World Cup Group G Winner: Belgium — 63¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 14%)
- World Cup Group G Winner: Egypt — 26¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 26%)
- World Cup Group G Winner: Iran — 7¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 32%)
- World Cup Group G Winner: New Zealand — 3¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 28%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "63% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/world-cup-group-g-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=World%20Cup%20Group%20G%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev