66% — World Cup Group I Winner
Leader: France at 66% · Polymarket 66% · 3 contracts · $17K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:46:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that France will win their World Cup Group I match. At 69%, traders are pricing France as a clear favorite, though not overwhelming, with Norway as the second choice at 22%. The current price likely reflects France's recent performance, squad strength, and tournament history versus group opponents. The main factors supporting France's position are their ranking and recent results; factors that could shift the probability include team roster changes, injuries to key players, or Norway's recent form. The probability will move significantly once matches are played and actual results emerge, with the outcome definitively resolved after Group I matches conclude.

Key factors:
- France's current FIFA ranking and head-to-head historical record against Norway and other Group I opponents
- Recent injury status or player absences for France's squad, which could materially weaken their competitive position
- Norway's recent form in qualification and friendly matches leading into the tournament
- The specific match scheduling and venue conditions that could advantage or disadvantage either team
- Trading volume concentration—the France contract has 3.5x higher 24-hour volume ($2,836) than the Norway contract, potentially indicating broader market confidence or liquidity effects rather than new information

Contracts:
- World Cup Group I Winner: France — 66¢ Polymarket $16K (weight 93%)
- World Cup Group I Winner: Norway — 24¢ Polymarket $663 (weight 4%)
- World Cup Group I Winner: Senegal — 11¢ Polymarket $591 (weight 3%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:09.287Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "66% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/world-cup-group-i-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=World%20Cup%20Group%20I%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev