10% — World Cup Winner
Leader: Portugal at 10% · Polymarket 10% · 4 contracts · $4.1M volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:46:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Spain and France are tied as the joint favorites at 17% each in the 2026 World Cup winner market, meaning traders estimate roughly a 1-in-6 chance either team captures the tournament. This probability reflects expectations about each nation's squad depth, recent competitive performance, and fitness heading into the tournament scheduled for June-July 2026. Key drivers include roster composition changes, injury status of star players in the months before competition, and head-to-head matchup positioning within tournament brackets. The primary uncertainty resolver will be the tournament draw and final squad announcements, typically released weeks before play begins, which will clarify team strength and path-to-victory scenarios. Until then, market prices may shift on international friendly results and player injury updates that signal team readiness.

Key factors:
- Spain and France both priced at 17¢, while Portugal trails at 10¢ and Germany at 5¢, indicating modest differentiation among traditional powerhouses
- Market shows high uncertainty: the combined probability of all nine contracts is well under 100¢, suggesting traders assign meaningful odds to long-shot outcomes not listed in top contracts
- Portugal's 10¢ price reflects a lower perceived win probability despite recent tournament success, suggesting doubts about squad renewal or sustainability
- The 2026 World Cup is scheduled for June-July 2026, with squad announcements and tournament draw occurring in the months before that serve as near-term information events
- High 24-hour volume across Spain (441k), France (374k), Portugal (542k), and Norway (469k) contracts indicates active trader disagreement on relative team strength

Contracts:
- World Cup Winner : Portugal — 10¢ Polymarket $993K (weight 24%)
- World Cup Winner : Brazil — 8¢ Polymarket $932K (weight 23%)
- World Cup Winner : Netherlands — 4¢ Polymarket $940K (weight 23%)
- World Cup Winner : Norway — 3¢ Polymarket $1.2M (weight 30%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:09.117Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/world-cup-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=World%20Cup%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev