31% — England vs India Winner Kalshi 31% · 16 contracts · $15K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 00:38:32 UTC Why this matters: This 35% probability reflects a prediction that England will defeat India in an upcoming match. The probability reflects India's recent strong performance across formats, with their 62-cent valuation in a separate India vs South Africa market suggesting market confidence in their current form. England's lower probability reflects recent inconsistency, though their 77-cent valuation against Scotland indicates they remain competitive against certain opponents. The primary factors influencing this probability are each team's recent match results, player fitness and availability, and head-to-head record in relevant conditions. Resolution depends on the scheduled England vs India match being completed as scheduled, with the outcome determined by standard cricket rules. Key factors: - India's current rating against South Africa (62 cents) suggests the market views them as strong favorites in bilateral matchups - England's rating against Scotland (77 cents) indicates competitive but not dominant form relative to other strong teams - The 35% probability implies a significant gap in expected performance between the two teams based on recent playing patterns - Match-specific factors like venue conditions, recent team injuries, or last-minute lineup changes would directly affect the probability if disclosed - The absence of comparable historical pricing data prevents analysis of whether this probability represents movement from prior expectations Contracts: - England vs New Zealand Winner?: England — 72¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 27%) - Australia vs India Winner?: India — 36¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 19%) - Pakistan vs Netherlands Winner?: Pakistan — 75¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 14%) - Pakistan vs Netherlands Winner?: Netherlands — 23¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 12%) - Australia vs India Winner?: Australia — 64¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 10%) - West Indies vs Ireland Winner?: West Indies — 75¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 9%) - England vs New Zealand Winner?: New Zealand — 25¢ Kalshi $783 (weight 5%) - South Africa vs Bangladesh Winner?: South Africa — 65¢ Kalshi $540 (weight 4%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T00:20:51.072Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wt20match Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=England%20vs%20India%20Winner Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev