11% — Will Jessica Pegula win the WTA Rome
Kalshi 11% · 7 contracts · $577 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:26 UTC

Why this matters:
A 13% probability means the market estimates Jessica Pegula has roughly a one-in-eight chance of winning the 2026 WTA Rome tournament. The market is pricing her below several other top contenders—Aryna Sabalenka leads at 30%, followed by Elena Rybakina at 14%—reflecting her historical performance at clay-court events and current ranking relative to the field. Pegula's probability would rise or fall based on her results in the weeks leading up to Rome and her draw positioning within the bracket. The tournament itself, scheduled to begin soon, will resolve this market as matches are played and eliminated players are removed from contention. Until the event concludes, uncertainty remains around seeding, court conditions, and head-to-head matchups that could favor or disadvantage Pegula.

Key factors:
- Sabalenka's 30% probability exceeds Pegula's by more than 2:1, suggesting the market views Sabalenka as a significantly stronger clay-court threat
- Pegula's 13% positions her below Rybakina (14%) and well below the top seed Sabalenka, indicating questions about her clay-court form relative to the field
- The tournament draw and Pegula's bracket positioning could create favorable or unfavorable matchup sequences that materially affect her path to the final
- Pegula's recent match results against top-10 clay-court players in the weeks before Rome would provide concrete data on her current fitness and performance
- Weather and court conditions at Rome during tournament play could disproportionately favor or disadvantage her playing style compared to rivals

Contracts:
- Will Aryna Sabalenka win the WTA Rome?: Aryna Sabalenka — 30¢ Kalshi $245 (weight 43%)
- Will Elena Rybakina win the WTA Rome?: Elena Rybakina — 14¢ Kalshi $143 (weight 25%)
- Will Coco Gauff win the WTA Rome?: Coco Gauff — 9¢ Kalshi $69 (weight 12%)
- Will Iga Swiatek win the WTA Rome?: Iga Swiatek — 8¢ Kalshi $58 (weight 10%)
- Will Mirra Andreeva win the WTA Rome?: Mirra Andreeva — 3¢ Kalshi $46 (weight 8%)
- Will Hailey Baptiste win the WTA Rome?: Hailey Baptiste — 6¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 3%)
- Will Leylah Annie Fernandez win the WTA Rome?: Leylah Annie Fernandez — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wta
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jessica%20Pegula%20win%20the%20WTA%20Rome
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev