26% — Will Mirra Andreeva win the Mirra Andreeva vs Maja Chwalinska match by a set score of 2-0
Kalshi 26% · 4 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:56 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the likelihood that Mirra Andreeva will defeat Maja Chwalinska by winning the first two sets without dropping a set. The 25% estimate suggests markets view this as a meaningful possibility but not the most likely outcome—traders assign roughly 57% to an Andreeva 2-0 victory based on contract pricing, with alternative scenarios like Chwalinska winning 2-1 (14%) or Andreeva winning 2-1 (21%) splitting the remaining probability. The probability reflects relative playing strength, recent form, and head-to-head history between the two players. A straight-sets win requires dominant performance rather than a competitive three-set match, making this outcome more specific than simply picking a winner. The match itself will resolve all uncertainty once played.

Key factors:
- Recent ATP/WTA rankings and seeding differential between Andreeva and Chwalinska establish baseline competitive gaps
- Head-to-head record and performance patterns in previous meetings, if any, directly indicate stylistic matchups
- Surface type and venue conditions of the scheduled match (hard court, clay, grass) favor different playing styles and influence set-win probabilities
- Recent form and injury status of both players in the weeks leading up to the match affect confidence in dominant performance
- Contractual pricing shows markets assign 57% to the 2-0 outcome specifically, implying 43% probability that the match goes to at least three sets regardless of winner

Contracts:
- Will Mirra Andreeva win the Mirra Andreeva vs Maja Chwalinska match by a set score of 2-0?: Mirra Andreeva wins 2-0 — 57¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 72%)
- Will Maja Chwalinska win the Mirra Andreeva vs Maja Chwalinska match by a set score of 2-1?: Maja Chwalinska wins 2-1 — 14¢ Kalshi $658 (weight 15%)
- Will Mirra Andreeva win the Mirra Andreeva vs Maja Chwalinska match by a set score of 2-1?: Mirra Andreeva wins 2-1 — 21¢ Kalshi $416 (weight 10%)
- Will Maja Chwalinska win the Mirra Andreeva vs Maja Chwalinska match by a set score of 2-0?: Maja Chwalinska wins 2-0 — 10¢ Kalshi $141 (weight 3%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-06T07:20:12.449Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wtaexactmatch
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Mirra%20Andreeva%20win%20the%20Mirra%20Andreeva%20vs%20Maja%20Chwalinska%20match%20by%20a%20set%20score%20of%202-0
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev