57% — Will the price of WTI oil be above 80 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST Leader: 80 or above at 57% · Kalshi 57% · 11 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 07:01:52 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes. Why this matters: This market indicates an estimated 93% probability that West Texas Intermediate crude oil will trade above $75 per barrel on December 31, 2026. The high probability reflects expectations that oil prices will remain at or above this relatively modest threshold over the next seven months. Current market pricing suggests traders view a price floor around $75 as highly likely, though there's meaningful uncertainty about higher price levels—contracts for $100+ oil trade at only 43 cents. The probability depends on global supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical developments affecting production, macroeconomic growth expectations, and seasonal patterns heading into year-end. Key uncertainties include OPEC+ production decisions, potential supply disruptions, and whether economic weakness or recession materializes, which would pressure prices downward. The contract ultimately resolves based on the WTI spot price at a specific time on December 31, 2026, making it sensitive to year-end trading patterns and any late-breaking developments affecting energy markets. Key factors: - OPEC+ compliance with production quotas through 2026; announced cuts or production increases would directly affect supply and upward or downward price pressure - Global macroeconomic data and recession indicators between now and December; weaker growth typically reduces oil demand and prices below $75 - Geopolitical events affecting major producing regions (Middle East, Russia, Africa); supply disruptions historically drive prices higher within weeks - US dollar strength and interest rate expectations; a weaker dollar typically supports higher oil prices while a stronger dollar pressures them downward - Seasonal demand patterns and inventory levels in Q4 2026; winter heating demand typically supports prices but excess supply can overwhelm seasonal effects Contracts: - Will the price of WTI oil be above 80 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST?: 80 or above — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%) - Will the price of WTI oil be above 75 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST?: 75 or above — 51¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%) - Will the price of WTI oil be above 95 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST?: 95 or above — 39¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%) - Will the price of WTI oil be above 85 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST?: 85 or above — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%) - Will the price of WTI oil be above 90 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST?: 90 or above — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%) - Will the price of WTI oil be above 105 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST?: 105 or above — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%) - Will the price of WTI oil be above 110 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST?: 110 or above — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%) - Will the price of WTI oil be above 100 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST?: 100 or above — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T06:20:07.205Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "57% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wtidiry Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20price%20of%20WTI%20oil%20be%20above%2080%20on%20December%2031%2C%202026%20at%2002%3A30%20PM%20EST Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev