41% — Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026 Leader: 85.51 or above at 41% · Kalshi 41% · 15 contracts · $83K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 02:45:23 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 15 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 42% probability that WTI crude oil's front-month contract will reach at least $115.01 at some point before the end of 2026. The current price level and geopolitical risk appetite are the primary drivers of this probability. Oil prices respond strongly to expectations about global supply disruptions, demand destruction from economic slowdowns, and OPEC production decisions. The probability would rise if markets price in significant supply-side risks or fall if demand weakens further. Key upcoming catalysts include quarterly GDP data, OPEC+ meeting announcements, and any major geopolitical escalation affecting production. The pricing suggests traders view a $115 print as moderately likely but not the base case, with substantially lower odds for higher price targets like $135 or $180. Key factors: - WTI front month is currently trading roughly $10-20 below the $115.01 threshold, requiring an 8-20% rally from typical recent price ranges - OPEC+ production decisions and compliance rates directly influence supply expectations; their next scheduled meetings will affect near-term price direction - Seasonal demand patterns peak in late summer and early winter; winter heating demand through Q4 2026 could create upside price pressure - Recent 24-hour volume of $47,884 on the $115 contract represents the highest among all price-level outcomes, indicating active trader interest and disagreement on the outcome - Economic recession signals or demand destruction from slower growth would push probabilities downward, while supply disruptions or supply-cut announcements would push upward Contracts: - Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $85.50 by Aug 31, 2026?: 85.51 or above — 41¢ Kalshi $546 (weight 1%) - Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $115.01 or above — 29¢ Kalshi $51K (weight 61%) - Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $120.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $120.01 or above — 27¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 9%) - Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $125.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $125.01 or above — 20¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 6%) - Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $130.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $130.01 or above — 18¢ Kalshi $850 (weight 1%) - Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $135.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $135.01 or above — 15¢ Kalshi $364 (weight 0%) - Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $140.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $140.01 or above — 14¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 2%) - Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $150.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $150.01 or above — 12¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 16%) - ... and 7 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T02:20:52.425Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "41% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wtimax Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20maximum%20WTI%20front%20month%20settle%20price%20reach%20%24115.01%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev