32% — Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026 Leader: $115.01 or above at 32% · Kalshi 32% · 10 contracts · $48K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-19 14:38:41 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: The market is pricing a 75% probability that crude oil's highest daily settlement price will reach $115.01 or higher by year-end 2026. This threshold sits roughly 13–15% above current price levels, reflecting expectations of modest appreciation over the next eight months. The probability is driven by two competing forces: structural support from OPEC+ production management and geopolitical risk premiums, which push higher; and demand concerns tied to global economic growth forecasts, which weigh lower. Near-term price action matters most—the related contracts show traders split on whether oil will clear $103 by May 4 and $109 by May 8, suggesting uncertainty about immediate direction. Outcomes in Q2 energy data releases, Fed policy moves, and Middle East developments will likely shift this probability meaningfully. Key factors: - WTI is currently trading ~$99–$102; reaching $115.01 requires sustained price appreciation of 13–15% over eight months - OPEC+ production decisions and compliance announcements through June and beyond will directly influence supply-side pressure - Near-term contracts show only 50% probability of clearing $103 by May 4 and 30% probability of $109 by May 8, indicating low conviction on immediate upside - A $135.01 ceiling contract trades at 46%, suggesting market views anything above the $115 target as lower-probability tail risk - Demand-side catalysts—central bank policy, recession signals, and economic growth revisions—could reverse the 75% probability if they deteriorate Contracts: - Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $115.01 or above — 32¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 14%) - Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $125.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $125.01 or above — 28¢ Kalshi $509 (weight 1%) - Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $120.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $120.01 or above — 26¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 4%) - Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $130.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $130.01 or above — 23¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 5%) - Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $140.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $140.01 or above — 20¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%) - Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $135.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $135.01 or above — 20¢ Kalshi $235 (weight 0%) - Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $150.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $150.01 or above — 18¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 9%) - Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $160.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $160.01 or above — 12¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 21%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-19T14:20:19.213Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wtimax Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20maximum%20WTI%20front%20month%20settle%20price%20reach%20%24115.01%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev