14% — Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $75 by Jun 30, 2026
Leader: 75.01 or above at 14% · Kalshi 14% · 3 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-09 21:47:09 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability estimates a 55% chance that crude oil (WTI front-month contract) will reach or exceed $75 per barrel at some point between now and June 30, 2026—just six days away. The current WTI price and recent trading range are the primary inputs: if oil is already trading near or above $75, the probability would reflect that reality; if it's trading significantly below, the market is pricing in a material rally as more likely than not. The main drivers are near-term supply disruptions, geopolitical events, or demand shifts over this narrow timeframe. Since the resolution date is imminent, the outcome depends almost entirely on price movements within the next week, with limited time for major catalysts to shift sentiment materially.

Key factors:
- Current WTI front-month settlement price and distance from $75 threshold as of market close June 24, 2026
- Historical volatility of WTI over 6-day windows and whether intraday trading patterns suggest momentum toward or away from $75
- Related contract odds showing 53% probability for $78 and 54% for $78.50 threshold, indicating market uncertainty about magnitude of required move
- Geopolitical or supply-side news within the final week of June that could trigger short-term price acceleration
- Technical support or resistance levels between current price and $75, and trading volume patterns suggesting conviction in either direction

Contracts:
- Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $75 by Jun 30, 2026?: 75.01 or above — 14¢ Kalshi $735 (weight 43%)
- Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $76 by Jun 30, 2026?: 76.01 or above — 9¢ Kalshi $109 (weight 6%)
- Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $77 by Jun 30, 2026?: 77.01 or above — 3¢ Kalshi $850 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-01T13:20:51.042Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wtimaxm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20maximum%20WTI%20front%20month%20settle%20price%20reach%20%2475%20by%20Jun%2030%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev