80% — Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $50 by Dec 31, 2026 Leader: 69.99 or below at 80% · Kalshi 80% · 5 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-23 23:10:34 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract measures whether crude oil's front-month price will trade at or above $50 at any point before the end of 2026. At 55% probability, the market reflects slightly better odds for reaching this threshold than not. Current WTI prices near $80–90 provide substantial room for prices to decline 40–44% and still settle above $50 by year-end. The main drivers are global supply disruptions, OPEC production decisions, and macroeconomic demand—particularly manufacturing activity in developed economies and Chinese industrial output. Near-term catalysts include weekly petroleum inventory data from the EIA and OPEC meetings scheduled later in 2026, both of which can shift sentiment around medium-term price floors. The low cost of capital and structural demand for crude oil make prices dropping below $50 less likely than a year ago, though recession risk or a sustained demand collapse remains possible. Key factors: - Current WTI front-month price (~$80–90) sits 38–44% above the $50 threshold, creating a substantial buffer against year-end settlement below target - Weekly EIA crude inventory reports and any supply disruptions (geopolitical events, refinery outages) are near-term price movers that affect the probability of temporary dips - OPEC production policy decisions and changes in Chinese economic growth rates directly influence medium-term price floors and the likelihood of sustained sub-$50 pricing - The 7-contract structure shows meaningful disagreement on specific price levels in May and December, with some traders pricing near-term volatility while others focus on year-end positioning - A global recession scenario or demand destruction would be the primary risk to the $50 floor; current probabilities suggest markets assess this risk as material but not dominant Contracts: - Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $70 by Dec 31, 2026?: 69.99 or below — 80¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 64%) - Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?: 64.99 or below — 42¢ Kalshi $412 (weight 6%) - Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $60 by Dec 31, 2026?: 59.99 or below — 27¢ Kalshi $311 (weight 4%) - Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $50 by Dec 31, 2026?: 49.99 or below — 10¢ Kalshi $618 (weight 9%) - Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $55 by Dec 31, 2026?: 54.99 or below — 9¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 17%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-23T22:20:49.314Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "80% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wtimin Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20minimum%20WTI%20front%20month%20settle%20price%20reach%20%2450%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev