63% — Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $50 by Dec 31, 2026 Leader: 73.99 or below at 63% · Kalshi 63% · 18 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 02:45:24 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes. Why this matters: This 54% probability reflects traders' assessment that crude oil will touch $50 per barrel at some point between now and year-end 2026. The probability leans toward a price dip occurring, but only slightly—suggesting meaningful uncertainty about near-term direction. Oil prices are driven primarily by supply disruptions, OPEC+ production decisions, and global demand growth or recession signals. Near-term volatility is anchored to geopolitical risk and inventory data, while longer-term movement depends on whether economic growth accelerates or decelerates. The August inventory reports and any major supply shocks over the next four months will likely resolve much of this uncertainty, as they determine whether crude stays range-bound above $50 or breaks lower. Key factors: - WTI front-month crude closed above $80 in early August 2026; a $30+ decline would be required to breach $50 by year-end - Kalshi's shorter-dated contracts ($59 by Dec 31 at 21¢) show minimal pricing for a $20+ drop, suggesting marginal probability of steep declines - OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical stability have historically supported floors; any major supply disruption would support higher prices and lower this probability - Global recession indicators and China demand data over Q4 2026 will be the primary downside catalyst; strong economic reports would keep prices elevated - The market is pricing roughly symmetric risk between a stable, higher-price scenario and a slip toward $50, with the leader at 54% indicating slight lean toward the dip occurring Contracts: - Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $74.00 by Aug 31, 2026?: 73.99 or below — 63¢ Kalshi $773 (weight 15%) - Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $73.00 by Aug 31, 2026?: 72.99 or below — 53¢ Kalshi $141 (weight 3%) - Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?: 64.99 or below — 52¢ Kalshi $475 (weight 9%) - Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $74.50 by Aug 31, 2026?: 74.49 or below — 50¢ Kalshi $104 (weight 2%) - Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $64 by Dec 31, 2026?: 63.99 or below — 43¢ Kalshi $33 (weight 1%) - Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $61 by Dec 31, 2026?: 60.99 or below — 22¢ Kalshi $155 (weight 3%) - Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $60 by Dec 31, 2026?: 59.99 or below — 20¢ Kalshi $655 (weight 12%) - Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $57 by Dec 31, 2026?: 56.99 or below — 16¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 0%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T02:20:50.141Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "63% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wtimin Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20minimum%20WTI%20front%20month%20settle%20price%20reach%20%2450%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev