38% — Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $78 by Apr 30, 2026
Leader: 86 or below at 38% · Kalshi 38% · 2 contracts · $16K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 21:00:54 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $86.01 by May 29, 2026?: 86 or below — 38¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 56%)
- Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $80.01 by May 29, 2026?: 80 or below — 4¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 44%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-30T07:20:12.459Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wtiminm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20minimum%20WTI%20front%20month%20settle%20price%20reach%20%2478%20by%20Apr%2030%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev