38% — Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 85.00 and 85.99 on Apr 24, 2026 Leader: Above $93.99 at 38% · Kalshi 38% · 7 contracts · $97K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:07 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This market reflects the probability that WTI crude oil will close between $85.00 and $85.99 on April 24, 2026. At 36%, this is the highest-priced outcome among eleven competing price bands for that settlement date. The current pricing suggests traders view a sub-$96 close as more likely (13% implied), indicating broader expectations that oil may trade lower than current levels. The actual settlement price on April 24 will determine the outcome, with trading activity and supply/demand dynamics in the weeks leading up to that date driving shifts in probabilities. Geopolitical events, OPEC production decisions, US economic data, and global demand signals typically influence crude direction significantly. Key factors: - WTI is currently trading at levels substantially above the $85–$86 range, requiring roughly 10–15% downward movement to settle in this band - The $109+ contract commands the highest probability (36%), suggesting market consensus leans toward higher prices rather than this lower-bound scenario - OPEC meeting outcomes, US inventory reports, and macroeconomic indicators between now and April 24 will materially affect settlement price - Open interest and trading volume are concentrated on contracts $96 and above, indicating asymmetric conviction toward higher price outcomes - Seasonal demand patterns and geopolitical tensions historically drive significant WTI volatility in comparable timeframes Contracts: - Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 5, 2026?: Above $93.99 — 38¢ Kalshi $58K (weight 60%) - Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 92.00 and 92.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 5, 2026?: $92.00 to $92.99 — 16¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 8%) - Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 93.00 and 93.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 5, 2026?: $93.00 to $93.99 — 14¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 15%) - Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 91.00 and 91.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 5, 2026?: $91.00 to $91.99 — 11¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 5%) - Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 90.00 and 90.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 5, 2026?: $90.00 to $90.99 — 8¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 7%) - Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 89.00 and 89.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 5, 2026?: $89.00 to $89.99 — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 2%) - Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 88.00 and 88.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 5, 2026?: $88.00 to $88.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 3%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-05T19:20:12.252Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wtiw Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20WTI%20front-month%20settle%20oil%20price%20%20be%20Between%2085.00%20and%2085.99%20on%20Apr%2024%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev