95% — Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 74 million short tons
Leader: Above 72 million short tons at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 7 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectation that West Virginia will exceed 74 million short tons of coal production in 2026. The high 89% probability suggests traders believe output will remain above this threshold, though the declining probabilities for higher production levels (76%, 61%, 21%) indicate uncertainty about whether production will substantially exceed the baseline. Coal production depends on demand from electric utilities and industrial users, which is sensitive to natural gas prices, electricity consumption patterns, and regulatory changes affecting coal-fired power plants. The primary driver of resolution will be the actual 2026 production figures released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, typically reported in early 2027. Current market positioning suggests confidence in sustained output but tempered expectations for significant growth.

Key factors:
- West Virginia's 2025 coal production and trend trajectory relative to the 74 million short ton benchmark
- Natural gas prices and their competitive effect on coal-fired electricity generation economics
- Retirement or operational status of major coal-fired power plants in West Virginia's key customer regions
- Aggregate U.S. electricity demand growth or contraction in 2026 compared to recent years
- Changes to federal or state energy policy affecting coal generation dispatch or mining operations

Contracts:
- Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 72 million short tons?: Above 72 million short tons — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 74 million short tons?: Above 74 million short tons — 88¢ Kalshi $930 (weight 23%)
- Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 76 million short tons?: Above 76 million short tons — 62¢ Kalshi $150 (weight 4%)
- Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 78 million short tons?: Above 78 million short tons — 26¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 30%)
- Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 80 million short tons?: Above 80 million short tons — 22¢ Kalshi $208 (weight 5%)
- Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 82 million short tons?: Above 82 million short tons — 10¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 37%)
- Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 84 million short tons?: Above 84 million short tons — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.309Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wvcoal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20West%20Virginia%E2%80%99s%20total%20coal%20production%20for%202026%20be%20above%2074%20million%20short%20tons
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev