29% — Will Steve Friess be the Republican nominee for WY-AL
Kalshi 29% · 6 contracts · $28 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 02:57:43 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects traders' assessment that Steve Friess has a 25% chance of winning the Republican nomination for Wyoming's at-large congressional seat. Friess faces competition from candidates with higher current probabilities, including Chuck Gray and Reid Rasner who are both priced at 35%. The 25% probability would likely move based on campaign funding levels, endorsements from Wyoming Republican leadership, and primary turnout patterns. The Republican primary election will be the decisive event determining the nominee, scheduled for August 2026. Between now and then, candidate performance at public forums, fundraising announcements, and any shifts in party establishment support could significantly alter these probabilities.

Key factors:
- Chuck Gray and Reid Rasner are both priced 10 percentage points higher than Friess, indicating traders view them as stronger frontrunners for the nomination
- Trading volume on the Friess contract ($300 in 24h) substantially exceeds other candidates, suggesting more active price discovery for this particular outcome
- The August 2026 Wyoming Republican primary election will directly determine the nominee and fully resolve this contract
- No recent high-profile endorsements, campaign events, or funding announcements appear reflected in the current pricing differential between top candidates
- Giralt is priced at only 10% despite being listed as an alternative nominee option, suggesting limited trader conviction in a three-way competitive scenario

Contracts:
- Will Chuck Gray be the Republican nominee for WY-AL?: Chuck Gray — 49¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 93%)
- Will Elena Del Real be the Democratic nominee for WY-AL?: Elena Del Real — 9¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 4%)
- Will Lisa Kinney be the Democratic nominee for WY-AL?: Lisa Kinney — 90¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 4%)
- Will Frank Chapman be the Republican nominee for WY-AL?: Frank Chapman — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Reid Rasner be the Republican nominee for WY-AL?: Reid Rasner — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Steve Friess be the Republican nominee for WY-AL?: Steve Friess — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-24T02:20:49.169Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "29% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wyprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Steve%20Friess%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20WY-AL
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev