14% — Xi Jinping out by June 30
Kalshi 18% · Polymarket 13% · 18 contracts · $152K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 13:22:56 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 5pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that Xi Jinping ceases to hold his position as China's paramount leader within 16 days. At 14%, markets assign this outcome low but non-negligible odds. The baseline reflects Xi's consolidated control and absence of imminent succession planning, which would require extraordinary circumstances—serious health crisis, military coup, or major political rupture—to materialize in such a short timeframe. Upward pressure could come from unexpected health events or unprecedented factional conflict, while downward pressure reflects the stability of current power structures. The June 30 deadline captures a specific calendar point with no universally recognized trigger date; absence of any scheduled succession event contributes to the low probability. Resolution depends entirely on developments in Chinese leadership that markets cannot reliably predict.

Key factors:
- No announced health issues or public reports of incapacity as of mid-June 2026
- Xi's consolidation of military and party control structures historically reduces succession risk compared to earlier reform-era transitions
- Short 16-day timeframe makes sudden institutional change extremely unlikely absent dramatic triggering event
- Absence of any scheduled party plenum, congress, or formal transfer mechanism by June 30
- Markets show modest disagreement (18% on Kalshi vs 13% on Polymarket), suggesting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus dismissal

Contracts:
- Xi Jinping out before 2027? — 8¢ Polymarket $97K (weight 64%)
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?: June 30 — 18¢ Polymarket $15K (weight 10%)
- Netanyahu out by...?: June 30 — 5¢ Polymarket $12K (weight 8%)
- Kash Patel out by...?: June 30 — 31¢ Polymarket $11K (weight 7%)
- Starmer out by...?: June 30 — 41¢ Polymarket $8K (weight 5%)
- Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?: June 30, 2026 — 17¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 2%)
- Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?: June 30 — 5¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 2%)
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? — 13¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 1%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/xi-jinping-out-june-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Xi%20Jinping%20out%20by%20June%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev