12% — Will Cai Qi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045
Kalshi 12% · 7 contracts · $226 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 04:18:57 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents a 14% probability that Cai Qi, currently a senior Chinese Communist Party official, will become the CCP's top leader by early 2045. The relatively low probability reflects that party leadership succession is determined by closed-door elite politics rather than elections, with the current general secretary unlikely to relinquish power in the near term. The main drivers of this probability are Cai Qi's current position within the party hierarchy, precedent for how succession typically occurs among competing factions, and the substantial uncertainty inherent in predicting outcomes nearly two decades forward in a non-transparent political system. The single biggest catalyst would be signals about the next scheduled transition window, likely occurring around 2032-2035 based on recent historical patterns. Changes to Cai Qi's formal position, purges of rivals, or major shifts in factional alignments could move the probability materially.

Key factors:
- Cai Qi's current standing in the party hierarchy compared to other potential successors and potential rivals
- Historical succession patterns in CCP leadership transitions and Cai Qi's alignment with dominant factions
- Any public statements, personnel changes, or factional realignments that affect the perceived stability of the current leadership
- Timeline uncertainty: succession is typically managed during specific windows; the longer the forecasting horizon, the higher the probability of unexpected political shifts
- Changes to Cai Qi's formal positions or responsibilities that would indicate promotion or marginalization within party structures

Contracts:
- Will Li Qiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?: Li Qiang — 10¢ Kalshi $226 (weight 100%)
- Will Chen Jining become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?: Chen Jining — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Cai Qi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?: Cai Qi — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Ding Xuexiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?: Ding Xuexiang — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Li Xi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?: Li Xi — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Zhang Guoqing become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?: Zhang Guoqing — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Zhao Leji become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?: Zhao Leji — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-24T03:20:50.030Z*

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Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev