84% — XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $10M Leader: $40M at 84% · Polymarket 84% · 6 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 21:47:22 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract measures the probability that XMAQUINA will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of at least $10 million within one day of its token launch. The 97% probability reflects near-certainty in the market that this modest valuation threshold will be met. The wide gap between the $10M contract (97¢) and higher thresholds like $40M (50¢) and $150M (43¢) suggests traders expect the token to launch successfully and reach initial trading valuations, but are far less confident about significantly higher outcomes. The primary driver is whether the launch executes on schedule with sufficient liquidity and buyer interest to achieve even the lowest threshold. Resolution depends on the launch date and how FDV is calculated—typically by multiplying token price by total supply at the moment trading begins. Upside risks include stronger-than-expected demand or a larger initial supply, while downside risks involve launch delays, regulatory issues, or minimal initial trading volume. Key factors: - Launch execution status and timing remain the core uncertainty—delays or technical failures would pressure the $10M threshold down - Initial token liquidity and order book depth at launch will directly determine achievable FDV; insufficient trading volume could prevent price discovery at claimed valuations - Total token supply announced at launch directly multiplies with opening price to determine FDV; larger supply pools risk valuation - Market demand relative to other comparable token launches; comparison to similar projects' first-day valuations provides calibration - Definition and verification of FDV used for resolution—whether it includes all outstanding tokens or only circulating supply affects threshold achievability Contracts: - XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $40M — 84¢ Polymarket $50 (weight 0%) - XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $80M — 13¢ Polymarket $971 (weight 9%) - XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $60M — 10¢ Polymarket $8K (weight 78%) - XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M — 5¢ Polymarket $276 (weight 3%) - XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $150M — 4¢ Polymarket $525 (weight 5%) - XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M — 3¢ Polymarket $433 (weight 4%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T21:20:08.725Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/xmaquina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=XMAQUINA%20FDV%20above%20___%20one%20day%20after%20launch%3F%3A%20%2410M Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev