4% — Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.80 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026
Leader: Above $1.90 at 4% · Kalshi 4% · 4 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:29 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether XRP's trimmed mean price will exceed $1.80 by April 30, 2026—a date now 10 months in the past from today's perspective, suggesting this is a historical resolution or data issue. The 7% probability reflects skepticism that XRP reached this price level during that window. XRP's actual price movements depend on adoption trends, regulatory developments (particularly SEC rulings affecting XRP classification), and broader cryptocurrency market conditions. The main driver of such probabilities is whether market sentiment supports a price appreciation to nearly double recent trading levels. Related contracts show declining probabilities at higher price thresholds: $2.10 is priced at 3%, while $1.40 trades at 6%, indicating the market views higher price targets as increasingly unlikely within specified timeframes. Historical volatility and the current reference price relative to the $1.80 target would determine the outcome.

Key factors:
- XRP trimmed mean settlement price at the April 30, 2026 cutoff relative to $1.80 reference level—this resolves the contract directly
- Regulatory clarity on XRP's asset classification by the contract date, affecting institutional adoption and price support
- Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency market performance during the settlement period, as XRP moves correlated with macro crypto trends
- Trading volume and market depth at price levels near $1.80, indicating institutional or retail demand sustainability
- Historical XRP volatility relative to the $1.80 target, including whether prior rallies reached comparable levels

Contracts:
- Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.90 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $1.90 — 4¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 81%)
- Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.70 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $1.70 — 4¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 2%)
- Will XRP trimmed mean be above $2.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $2.00 — 4¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 2%)
- Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $1.50 — 3¢ Kalshi $196 (weight 15%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.468Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/xrpmaxmon-xrp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20XRP%20trimmed%20mean%20be%20above%20%241.80%20by%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET%20on%20Apr%2030%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev