50% — Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Above $2.00 at 50% · Kalshi 50% · 11 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 14:14:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates a 49% probability that XRP's trimmed mean price will exceed $1.50 by year-end 2026, with about five months remaining. The probability reflects uncertainty around broader cryptocurrency market conditions, regulatory developments affecting XRP specifically, and macroeconomic factors that typically drive volatile asset prices. Market participants are pricing in meaningful upside potential—the $3.00 contract at 29¢ suggests non-trivial odds of further appreciation—but also acknowledge downside risk, with the $1.50 level commanding less than even odds. Upcoming catalysts include regulatory clarity from the SEC, adoption developments from Ripple's enterprise partnerships, and correlation with broader digital asset market movements. The trimmed mean methodology filters extreme price outliers, reducing manipulation-driven distortions in the final reading.

Key factors:
- XRP has traded in a wide range over prior 12-month periods; achieving $1.50+ requires roughly 50-150% appreciation depending on current levels
- Regulatory outcomes—particularly SEC enforcement actions or legislative clarity—have historically created sharp price movements in XRP within days or weeks
- The contract's multi-outcome structure shows declining probabilities at higher price thresholds ($3.00 at 29¢, $4.50 at 15¢), indicating tiered conviction rather than binary outcomes
- Kalshi volume remains relatively modest ($300-500 per contract daily), suggesting limited institutional positioning and potential for repricing on new information
- Trimmed mean methodology requires assessment across multiple exchanges; concentration on low-volume venues could inflate or deflate the final settlement value

Contracts:
- Will XRP trimmed mean be above $2.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $2.00 — 50¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 37%)
- Will XRP trimmed mean be above $2.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $2.50 — 27¢ Kalshi $638 (weight 12%)
- Will XRP trimmed mean be above $3.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $3.00 — 15¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 43%)
- Will XRP trimmed mean be above $4.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.00 — 11¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 0%)
- Will XRP trimmed mean be above $3.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $3.50 — 11¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%)
- Will XRP trimmed mean be above $5.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.00 — 8¢ Kalshi $179 (weight 3%)
- Will XRP trimmed mean be above $4.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.50 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will XRP trimmed mean be above $5.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.50 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:49.279Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/xrpmaxy-xrp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20XRP%20trimmed%20mean%20be%20above%20%241.50%20by%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev