5% — Will XRP trimmed mean be below $1.10 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026
Leader: Below $1.10 at 5% · Kalshi 5% · 4 contracts · $9 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 09:44:53 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will XRP trimmed mean be below $1.10 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $1.10 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will XRP trimmed mean be below $1.20 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $1.20 — 4¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 100%)
- Will XRP trimmed mean be below $0.80 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $0.80 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will XRP trimmed mean be below $1.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $1.00 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-01T13:20:12.686Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/xrpminmon-xrp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20XRP%20trimmed%20mean%20be%20below%20%241.10%20by%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET%20on%20Apr%2030%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev