45% — YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
Leader: $50M at 45% · Polymarket 45% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 08:00:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 60% probability that a token will reach a $100 million fully diluted valuation within one day of launch. The current price reflects moderately bullish sentiment, sitting between the runner-up contract at 51% and outcomes with higher thresholds trading lower. The valuation hinges on launch-day trading volume, initial demand, and how the token supply is structured—larger supplies at equivalent market caps would produce lower valuations. Key uncertainties include market conditions on launch day, competing token releases, and regulatory developments that could affect sentiment. The resolution depends entirely on the token's first 24-hour trading activity and the official FDV calculation, which typically factors circulating or fully diluted token counts announced at or before launch. Market-wide crypto sentiment and comparable recent token launches will likely influence final positioning.

Key factors:
- Circulating supply announced at launch determines whether a given market cap translates to $100M FDV or not
- Launch-day crypto market conditions and aggregate trading volume across exchanges determine whether initial demand meets threshold
- Token lockup structure and vesting schedules affect reported FDV calculation methodology
- Competitive landscape—simultaneous launches or major competing tokens could reduce demand allocation
- Pre-launch marketing, partnerships announced, and ecosystem positioning set baseline expectations for Day 1 trading activity

Contracts:
- YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M — 45¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 14%)
- YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $20M — 45¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 14%)
- YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M — 45¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 14%)
- YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M — 45¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 14%)
- YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M — 44¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 14%)
- YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M — 24¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 14%)
- YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M — 21¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 14%)

Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/yom-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=YOM%20FDV%20above%20___%20one%20day%20after%20launch%3F%3A%20%24100M
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev