89% — Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.2 million active clear plus members in Q2 2026
Leader: Above 8.2 million at 89% · Kalshi 89% · 6 contracts · $200 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 14:02:16 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 78% probability indicates markets expect Clear Secure to report at least 8.2 million active Clear+ members in Q2 2026. The metric tracks subscription adoption for the company's expedited airport security program, a key revenue driver. The probability reflects confidence in continued membership growth, though quarterly membership fluctuations depend on enrollment trends, retention rates, and competitive pressures. Q2 results will be released in late July or early August 2026, when Clear Secure reports its second-quarter earnings. Markets price substantially lower odds for higher thresholds (38% for 8.4M, 15% for 8.6M, 5% for 8.8M), suggesting consensus expects growth but with meaningful uncertainty around the magnitude. Historical membership trends, airport traffic patterns, and subscription pricing changes all influence the final count.

Key factors:
- Clear Secure's Q1 2026 membership baseline and reported growth rate serve as the primary predictor for Q2 performance
- Quarterly membership changes typically correlate with travel volumes and seasonality, making summer airport traffic patterns material
- Competitive dynamics from other biometric/expedited security programs could affect Clear+ adoption or retention rates
- The company's pricing and promotional strategies in H1 2026 directly influence enrollment conversion and churn
- Historical quarterly growth cadence shows whether 8.2M represents baseline or optimistic scenario relative to recent trends

Contracts:
- Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.2 million active clear plus members in Q2 2026?: Above 8.2 million — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.3 million active clear plus members in Q2 2026?: Above 8.3 million — 71¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.4 million active clear plus members in Q2 2026?: Above 8.4 million — 47¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 100%)
- Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.5 million active clear plus members in Q2 2026?: Above 8.5 million — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.6 million active clear plus members in Q2 2026?: Above 8.6 million — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.8 million active clear plus members in Q2 2026?: Above 8.8 million — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T13:20:52.042Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "89% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev