88% — Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.7 million active clear+ members in 2026 Leader: Above 8.4 million at 88% · Kalshi 88% · 8 contracts · $429 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 14:11:22 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This market reflects a 94% probability that Clear Secure Inc. will report above 8.7 million active Clear+ members by the end of 2026. The high confidence reflects Clear's historical member growth trajectory and established market position in airport security screening. However, the declining prices on higher thresholds (75% for 8.6M, 49% for 8.8M, 24% for 9M) signal meaningful uncertainty about growth acceleration. Resolution depends on Clear's official year-end 2026 membership disclosure, typically reported in Q4 earnings. Key drivers include airport traffic recovery patterns post-pandemic, competitive pressure from TSA PreCheck and enrollment alternatives, consumer adoption rates among business travelers, and any changes to Clear's pricing or service offerings that could affect member retention or acquisition velocity. Key factors: - Clear reported approximately 8.2-8.3 million active members in early 2026, requiring roughly 400,000-500,000 net new members over ~6 months to exceed 8.7 million - Historical member growth rates and quarterly enrollment trends will determine whether 8.7M is a conservative or aggressive target for year-end 2026 - TSA PreCheck enrollment and competitor offerings directly impact Clear's addressable market and member acquisition costs - Airport traffic volumes and business travel spending patterns through Q4 2026 influence consumer demand for expedited security screening - Year-end 2026 earnings disclosure will provide the official membership count that resolves all contracts in this outcome series Contracts: - Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.4 million active clear+ members in 2026?: Above 8.4 million — 88¢ Kalshi $290 (weight 68%) - Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.5 million active clear+ members in 2026?: Above 8.5 million — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.6 million active clear+ members in 2026?: Above 8.6 million — 72¢ Kalshi $139 (weight 32%) - Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.7 million active clear+ members in 2026?: Above 8.7 million — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.8 million active clear+ members in 2026?: Above 8.8 million — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.9 million active clear+ members in 2026?: Above 8.9 million — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 9 million active clear+ members in 2026?: Above 9 million — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 9.1 million active clear+ members in 2026?: Above 9.1 million — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T13:20:51.486Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "88% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/youa Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Clear%20Secure%20Inc.%20report%20Above%208.7%20million%20active%20clear%2B%20members%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev