6% — Will Burna Boy be #1 on YouTube Charts' Daily Top Music Videos - United States in August 2026
Kalshi 6% · 4 contracts · $195 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-03 20:14:22 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Burna Boy will reach the #1 position on YouTube's daily top music videos chart for the United States at some point during August 2026. The 50% aggregated probability sits between the individual contract prices, suggesting genuine uncertainty about whether Burna Boy's content will outperform competitors during this specific month. Key drivers include whether Burna Boy releases new music in early August with sufficient promotional push, and how aggressively competing artists like Lil Baby (61¢) and Ella Langley (3¢) pursue chart placement. The outcome depends on cumulative daily chart performance throughout August, making the exact timing and volume of music releases the critical factor. Resolution occurs automatically as August progresses and daily YouTube chart data becomes public record.

Key factors:
- Whether Burna Boy releases new single or music video in August 2026 and its promotional intensity
- Timing and competitive landscape of releases from higher-probability artists (Lil Baby at 61¢, Moneybagg Yo at 3¢) during the same period
- Historical YouTube chart velocity for Burna Boy's previous releases relative to US market engagement patterns
- Volume of competing releases from trending US artists in August 2026
- YouTube's specific methodology for daily top music videos ranking and whether it measures views, engagement, or other metrics

Contracts:
- Will Ariana Grande be #1 on YouTube Charts' Daily Top Music Videos - United States in August 2026?: Ariana Grande — 7¢ Kalshi $164 (weight 84%)
- Will Ella Langley be #1 on YouTube Charts' Daily Top Music Videos - United States in August 2026?: Ella Langley — 6¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 9%)
- Will KATSEYE be #1 on YouTube Charts' Daily Top Music Videos - United States in August 2026?: KATSEYE — 6¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 7%)
- Will Ice Spice be #1 on YouTube Charts' Daily Top Music Videos - United States in August 2026?: Ice Spice — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-03T19:20:49.191Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ytmonthly
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Burna%20Boy%20be%20%231%20on%20YouTube%20Charts'%20Daily%20Top%20Music%20Videos%20-%20United%20States%20in%20August%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev