94% — Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 7% taco bell same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026 Leader: Above -1% at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 12 contracts · $114 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 16:17:34 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract reflects market expectations that Taco Bell will achieve same-store sales growth exceeding 7% in fiscal 2026. The 97% probability indicates traders believe this outcome is highly likely, but the sharp price drop across the threshold contracts—from 74¢ at 4% growth to just 18¢ at 7% growth—reveals concentration of uncertainty in the 4-7% range. Resolution depends on Yum! Brands' fiscal 2026 earnings report, which typically occurs in early 2027. Key drivers include consumer demand for value-oriented quick-service restaurants, pricing power, menu innovation at Taco Bell, and broader economic conditions affecting discretionary spending. The low contract volume ($178 in 24-hour trading) suggests limited market depth, so the 97% headline price reflects relatively few transactions and should be interpreted cautiously. Key factors: - Taco Bell's historical same-store sales growth trends and whether 7%+ is consistent with or significantly above recent performance - Macroeconomic conditions through fiscal 2026, particularly consumer spending patterns in the QSR value segment - Pricing actions and promotional strategy at Taco Bell relative to competitor responses and elasticity dynamics - The sharp probability cliff between 4% and 7% growth thresholds, suggesting most traders cluster expectations between 4-6% - Trading volume and depth are minimal ($178/day), indicating the 97% price reflects thin liquidity and may not represent robust consensus Contracts: - Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above -1% kfc same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above -1% — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 2% taco bell same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 2% — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 0% kfc same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 0% — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 3% taco bell same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 3% — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 4% taco bell same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 4% — 73¢ Kalshi $114 (weight 100%) - Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 1% kfc same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 1% — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 5% taco bell same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 5% — 52¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 2% kfc same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 2% — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T15:20:51.958Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/yuma Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Yum!%20Brands%20Inc.%20report%20Above%207%25%20taco%20bell%20same-store%20sales%20growth%20in%20fiscal%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev