94% — Will Taco Bell Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 102
Leader: Above 96 at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 11 contracts · $212 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether Taco Bell's monthly foot traffic will exceed 102 in August 2026. Markets currently price this outcome at 17 cents, suggesting less than a 20% probability. The pricing reflects uncertainty about consumer traffic patterns heading into late summer, when seasonal demand typically fluctuates. Key factors affecting resolution include overall quick-service restaurant traffic trends, regional economic conditions affecting discretionary dining, and Taco Bell's promotional activity during the month. The contract will resolve based on official foot traffic data reported after August closes, which typically becomes available within 1-2 weeks of month-end. Broader QSR traffic metrics and comparable chains' August performance will provide context for whether 102 represents an achievable threshold or an outlier outcome.

Key factors:
- August foot traffic baseline: historical Taco Bell August traffic levels and whether 102 represents above-average, average, or below-average performance for the month
- Promotional calendar: whether Taco Bell runs limited-time offers or value promotions in August 2026 that typically drive incremental traffic
- Competitive environment: traffic patterns at comparable QSR chains in August, indicating whether the broader market is trending toward higher or lower restaurant visits
- Weather patterns: summer heat and regional temperature variations affecting outdoor dining preferences and restaurant visit frequency
- Economic indicators: consumer spending and discretionary income levels in August 2026 relative to prior year comparisons

Contracts:
- Will Taco Bell Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 96 ?: Above 96 — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Taco Bell Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 97 ?: Above 97 — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Taco Bell Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 98 ?: Above 98 — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Taco Bell Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 99 ?: Above 99 — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Taco Bell Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 100 ?: Above 100 — 57¢ Kalshi $107 (weight 50%)
- Will Taco Bell Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 101 ?: Above 101 — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Taco Bell Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 102 ?: Above 102 — 27¢ Kalshi $105 (weight 50%)
- Will Taco Bell Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 103 ?: Above 103 — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.477Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/yumtbft
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Taco%20Bell%20Monthly%20Foot%20Traffic%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%20102
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev