3% — Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026
Polymarket 3% · 1 contracts · $174 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 14:21:36 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be removed from the Ukrainian presidency through election, constitutional process, or other means within the next 31 days. The 3% level suggests participants view this as unlikely given Zelenskyy's current political position and the absence of immediate formal mechanisms for removal. The probability would likely shift based on changes in Ukraine's security situation, significant political developments, or unexpected constitutional crises. The main uncertainty driver is whether peace negotiations or military developments could trigger rapid political changes. Ukraine's next scheduled elections are in 2029, so any transition would require extraordinary circumstances—either a constitutional mechanism or a dramatic shift in political conditions that destabilizes his government.

Key factors:
- Ukraine's presidential term expires 2029; no regular elections scheduled before July 2026 that would change the presidency
- Zelenskyy's current approval ratings and political coalition strength relative to historical precedent for mid-term removal
- Status of ongoing military operations and whether major battlefield developments could trigger political instability
- Existence or activation of constitutional provisions allowing for presidential impeachment or recall within the next month
- Activity level and public statements from opposition political figures or military leadership suggesting removal scenarios

Contracts:
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? — 3¢ Polymarket $174 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-june-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Zelenskyy%20out%20as%20Ukraine%20president%20by%20June%2030%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev