{"ticker":"0x0a8d89321f01639ec17b6bcf1ef0b6c15137b1934605f8bffeb50b2f291756d4","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","price":37,"bestBid":31,"bestAsk":43,"spread":12,"volume":1807.6024399999994,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":502.8088,"status":"open","closeTime":"2027-01-01","liquidityScore":"low","indicators":{"tauDays":254,"iyYes":255.3695380872297,"iyNo":80.80051791041252,"cri":1.778,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.3333,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.34,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.432,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":12,"bidDepthUsd":6267,"askDepthUsd":2856,"volume24h":0,"observability":"medium","eventType":"unknown","asPrior":0.35},"computedAt":"2026-04-21T21:53:19.505Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"0x4c35eee5846b4ebbbf8d5fcb112faa82677c4caf45fbbf622b29cc08f4bc1b9b","connectedTitle":"Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?: June 30, 2026","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:84939","groupLabel":"Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xe4fcc10c0ee2b1c0f6fd9bb8acdf8f009d38cfbf5c614a60e94696fa9da6c209","connectedTitle":"Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?: September 30, 2026","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:84939","groupLabel":"Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":-2,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T12:41:12.632Z","priceCents":38,"iy":234.02521929393671,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T12:50:28.127Z","priceCents":28,"iy":368.8410699198037,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T13:00:48.965Z","priceCents":29,"iy":351.18592838707076,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T13:10:25.459Z","priceCents":32,"iy":304.82293250959907,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T13:15:26.180Z","priceCents":33,"iy":291.2424566357786,"cri":2.03},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T13:25:25.629Z","priceCents":34,"iy":278.4651104832577,"cri":1.941},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T13:30:27.937Z","priceCents":32,"iy":304.8397049171307,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T13:35:26.985Z","priceCents":36,"iy":255.03230263600344,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T13:40:57.915Z","priceCents":35,"iy":266.4218617526011,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T13:45:24.872Z","priceCents":25,"iy":430.37885130115916,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T13:55:26.584Z","priceCents":28,"iy":368.9063079048143,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T14:00:55.591Z","priceCents":34,"iy":278.4924736513056,"cri":1.941},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T14:05:26.527Z","priceCents":33,"iy":291.2825233225526,"cri":2.03},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T14:10:45.627Z","priceCents":35,"iy":266.44385334526015,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T14:16:06.386Z","priceCents":34,"iy":278.5045151489577,"cri":1.941},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T14:25:28.531Z","priceCents":35,"iy":266.45432680833767,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T14:45:28.587Z","priceCents":36,"iy":255.08142732035654,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T14:50:30.016Z","priceCents":35,"iy":266.4721335853728,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T15:05:28.625Z","priceCents":34,"iy":278.54174090784943,"cri":1.941},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T15:15:36.894Z","priceCents":35,"iy":266.49099041418714,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T15:25:27.823Z","priceCents":34,"iy":278.55707205412307,"cri":1.941},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T15:30:28.479Z","priceCents":35,"iy":266.50146758342424,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T15:40:27.734Z","priceCents":36,"iy":255.11953704540997,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T15:50:28.957Z","priceCents":37,"iy":244.35263288766475,"cri":1.703},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T16:05:29.904Z","priceCents":36,"iy":255.13658981987533,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T16:10:41.911Z","priceCents":35,"iy":266.53080804052394,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T16:15:27.786Z","priceCents":36,"iy":255.14361221316548,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T16:25:27.704Z","priceCents":35,"iy":266.54128834093916,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T16:30:51.075Z","priceCents":37,"iy":244.37953635160216,"cri":1.703},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T16:35:26.955Z","priceCents":36,"iy":255.15765815951812,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T17:00:28.325Z","priceCents":37,"iy":244.3997178376295,"cri":1.703},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T17:05:28.778Z","priceCents":38,"iy":234.19363705305548,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T17:11:05.884Z","priceCents":36,"iy":255.18274405345556,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T18:30:29.759Z","priceCents":37,"iy":244.459320725207,"cri":1.703},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T18:35:29.553Z","priceCents":38,"iy":234.25167304138998,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T18:50:29.770Z","priceCents":36,"iy":255.252006722219,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T19:00:41.002Z","priceCents":37,"iy":244.47951539152442,"cri":1.703},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T19:05:30.149Z","priceCents":38,"iy":234.27010318029687,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T19:10:28.677Z","priceCents":36,"iy":255.26606460591773,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T19:25:29.310Z","priceCents":35,"iy":266.67236167179124,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T19:35:34.284Z","priceCents":36,"iy":255.28313697513966,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T19:45:29.746Z","priceCents":35,"iy":266.68704991291224,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T19:50:50.602Z","priceCents":36,"iy":255.29418501921484,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T19:55:31.863Z","priceCents":35,"iy":266.6943946402577,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T20:15:32.391Z","priceCents":36,"iy":255.31126115019472,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T20:20:31.165Z","priceCents":35,"iy":266.71328293979315,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T20:45:29.198Z","priceCents":36,"iy":255.3323583484719,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T21:40:30.559Z","priceCents":37,"iy":244.58631407946035,"cri":1.703},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T21:45:38.477Z","priceCents":38,"iy":234.37336557460208,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T21:50:32.700Z","priceCents":36,"iy":255.3775783733673,"cri":1.778}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["IY 255%","2 connected markets"],"warnings":["illiquid (LAS 0.33)"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x4c35eee5846b4ebbbf8d5fcb112faa82677c4caf45fbbf622b29cc08f4bc1b9b","reason":"Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?: June 30, 2026"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xe4fcc10c0ee2b1c0f6fd9bb8acdf8f009d38cfbf5c614a60e94696fa9da6c209","reason":"Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?: September 30, 2026"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Arc%20launch%20a%20token%20by%20December%2031%202026%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":3594}