{"ticker":"0x176e84015b1cc54d470836ef1d8a60753e17fa232d9b55e9aa8dde580d03f436","venue":"polymarket","title":"Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","price":14,"bestBid":13,"bestAsk":14,"spread":1,"volume":148987.11530499987,"volume24h":6197.448125,"openInterest":30022.8827,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-12-31","liquidityScore":"high","indicators":{"tauDays":236,"iyYes":951.30206249803,"iyNo":25.210276399352882,"cri":6.143,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.0714,"cvr":null,"overround":null,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.409,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":11266,"askDepthUsd":9718,"volume24h":6197.448125,"observability":"medium","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.3},"computedAt":"2026-05-09T07:32:10.776Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T19:25:37.515Z","priceCents":16,"iy":775.2102625095573,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T06:35:46.739Z","priceCents":18,"iy":673.9397214622669,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T06:40:46.299Z","priceCents":17,"iy":722.2942516392585,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T06:45:44.130Z","priceCents":19,"iy":630.7008939675854,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T06:50:55.321Z","priceCents":18,"iy":673.9670379903038,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T06:55:45.260Z","priceCents":17,"iy":722.3264562704588,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T09:45:11.171Z","priceCents":16,"iy":777.0870337477797,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T11:45:49.442Z","priceCents":50,"iy":148.06701553689504,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T12:36:05.119Z","priceCents":14,"iy":909.6836827844029,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T15:20:34.352Z","priceCents":15,"iy":839.5538796048618,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T16:40:18.893Z","priceCents":18,"iy":675.0889254289511,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T19:40:18.434Z","priceCents":17,"iy":723.8844843323631,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T08:01:27.648Z","priceCents":15,"iy":841.9290147327401,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T09:30:51.230Z","priceCents":16,"iy":780.2193775345677,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T19:10:51.538Z","priceCents":17,"iy":726.7746964855003,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T20:35:26.553Z","priceCents":18,"iy":678.2916749385165,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T04:00:13.920Z","priceCents":16,"iy":782.6763549031381,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T04:40:08.926Z","priceCents":17,"iy":727.9503374234234,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T04:45:09.636Z","priceCents":14,"iy":915.9005470310117,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T21:15:11.704Z","priceCents":16,"iy":784.981606954128,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T23:35:20.944Z","priceCents":17,"iy":730.3010952226326,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T06:55:41.020Z","priceCents":19,"iy":638.4827240374653,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T07:05:40.808Z","priceCents":18,"iy":682.2940032899658,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T08:00:40.971Z","priceCents":19,"iy":638.6006384062396,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T08:05:48.890Z","priceCents":18,"iy":682.4088096172902,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T08:10:50.234Z","priceCents":17,"iy":731.3741021384031,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T10:10:40.613Z","priceCents":18,"iy":682.652551063232,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T10:40:51.667Z","priceCents":17,"iy":731.6864049308828,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T10:50:39.754Z","priceCents":18,"iy":682.7310336269557,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T11:05:40.721Z","priceCents":19,"iy":638.9362775332586,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T11:50:11.196Z","priceCents":18,"iy":682.8459870877543,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T11:55:11.087Z","priceCents":20,"iy":599.581935335499,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T12:00:14.769Z","priceCents":19,"iy":639.0359883281099,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T12:35:48.328Z","priceCents":18,"iy":682.9357337623076,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T13:20:24.356Z","priceCents":19,"iy":639.1829872902794,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T13:55:59.934Z","priceCents":18,"iy":683.0928472213665,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T14:35:58.634Z","priceCents":17,"iy":732.1764164514083,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T23:31:13.263Z","priceCents":16,"iy":788.5153485309851,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-03T03:15:47.066Z","priceCents":15,"iy":855.163783503677,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-03T07:46:18.988Z","priceCents":16,"iy":792.9004121220146,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-03T12:55:56.899Z","priceCents":17,"iy":738.0317415770711,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-03T16:25:59.939Z","priceCents":16,"iy":794.0865673497295,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T22:10:54.163Z","priceCents":15,"iy":868.770196631888,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T22:25:49.262Z","priceCents":14,"iy":941.8196110906084,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T17:40:45.770Z","priceCents":15,"iy":871.7471048302236,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T20:10:24.415Z","priceCents":14,"iy":945.4175709725783,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T11:20:41.174Z","priceCents":15,"iy":874.4597163678284,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T18:25:32.354Z","priceCents":16,"iy":811.1729147617597,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T22:05:33.477Z","priceCents":15,"iy":876.1191522046997,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T00:05:38.296Z","priceCents":14,"iy":950.0766356814763,"cri":6.143}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["IY 951%"],"warnings":["cliff risk 6.1"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 13c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"polymarket","marketId":"0x176e84015b1cc54d470836ef1d8a60753e17fa232d9b55e9aa8dde580d03f436","marketTitle":"Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":13},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Friedrich%20Merz%20out%20as%20Chancellor%20of%20Germany%20before%202027%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":59}