{"ticker":"0x2c41ac56695e28bd7bca361bffde6977e6211406e19fb26ec98037661f23c35f","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","price":10,"bestBid":9,"bestAsk":10,"spread":1,"volume":79698.93565499998,"volume24h":513.85,"openInterest":41359.22032,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-12-31","liquidityScore":"high","indicators":{"tauDays":200,"iyYes":1642.2044032074225,"iyNo":20.27412843465954,"cri":9,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.1,"cvr":null,"overround":3.97,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"observability":"medium","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.5},"computedAt":"2026-06-13T23:05:59.273Z","fresh":false},"crossVenue":{"ticker":"KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SBF","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Sam Bankman-Fried","confidenceScore":0.78,"priceCents":null},"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"0x0146bc6b56b60b7451fe1aa786f0f795390ba3fd2d454b005925fac454c2f831","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Bob Menendez","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x07d4883660832eb7b64be2f4dba5870eb3ff4ae764e79893d6f574eaa075f7cf","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Edward Snowden","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x1b53ad65dae4809d3d1097bbcd6be1f44ba5cddd47be9ce21896722c7d79681a","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Nicolas Maduro","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x25a847211096054f4e4b4a6a575ed7183da2ba692d9b97899742bdc6611a69ed","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Daniel Penny","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x30efbe1580dacf2bf87a89bdb1015e3f3398f8bc7e4453210e83bbdbb0f621b9","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Eric Adams","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x354d0b717b2f83b620f34be00890b6dd4e93a9b7c7ad71d435db77eff868b91c","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Derek Chauvin","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x4a869db910b4f8e3dc8e4b562889939b2ad272c8cef5914eadeb12fb6b979ad2","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Steve Bannon","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x507746b101b9b031567da9c5cb1bf714dac808299708020fc91a9fa6a6032978","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Julian Assange","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x54701be7ec2f8ae91308ef7ca1e28720f74664e3d3dc446ceef76e86a785e579","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Keonne Rodriguez","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x63c7e65d0324c084b74b62f5c9109bd0b02570c6833cde0b959c911b6eb6be8b","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Elon Musk","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x6bc658b5fdfded234356308d971d7b93e2e92c48eff32144bc163b4a3da7277b","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Himself","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x836ddf4f19b2ea425a7b038249d07f67e68411e1d0736b1b27cd8d1e7c3b7be8","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Donald Brodie","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xa351f017fc3e489eac1c02153cc22bd9d02c520e257b88177d3a1fe1d537ec93","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Antoine Massey","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xa5037368e1c68fe7efb9361b57e5c010e701ff0bc6ee41fd7a98bc8f8cf866b1","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Stefan Brodie","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xaf3f06b4f26051357aa7086b5e58ef3d56a600a2da3122b3f8458077b80efec7","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Young Thug","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xb5052bf717633331a67703cec30c3506216a77176cd5d032dcffb04034f18d48","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Roger Ver","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xbb8c9abdefb768e1f5686f1274a96c4403fe801df50d3d84d1f886256705fc96","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Joe Exotic","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xbde10fc985687f35034b62df6cd50adbe835dcf08a36a93c4c695ed75777e32c","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Ryan Salame","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xcd4a8e578de8204cf31c57e509e507c81462b10ef0840d0495c737bd047edabb","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Hunter Biden","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xd6587cdab5cd947ae9a0ec948252b7ff02564a2561aff0cd49d30d80c9806deb","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Elizabeth Holmes","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xdbb048848c9ee26557d7ad31ba64715e0a6ebb95a104f48a534edcb3a835b5a9","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Roger Stone","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xe16cd141288e4f14414608210a92225704d5d0a90ef79fd732b83af5c47623e4","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Diddy","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xe243748396163f096042bb0c7ea137a864f5259b9b906ce1656ec8d4bd3c64d0","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Martin Shkreli","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xe3756fe9c41dd786bac8d5092c783e02463f5d5de99285f1f5d0fd47df02f76a","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Do Kwon","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xef145ca5ba752b022f71b4d1f7abeb6c311cd537c0d1e64f3682ca90b2412dbf","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Ghislaine Maxwell","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xfcbc8e878762a0599bda65edefb8b21ebc438cfea024b4124b1e1a4dccb59cd4","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Matt Gaetz","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:83804","groupLabel":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-15T12:45:38.629Z","priceCents":14,"iy":977.1048063969081,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-15T13:05:48.918Z","priceCents":18,"iy":724.6671567188971,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-15T13:10:45.756Z","priceCents":14,"iy":977.1771999872989,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-15T13:35:46.672Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1064.664763871068,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-15T13:40:46.684Z","priceCents":14,"iy":977.2666421753288,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-15T14:56:10.146Z","priceCents":11,"iy":1287.4738720286246,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-15T15:01:02.195Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1608.9685646828134,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-15T15:06:21.839Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1830.0046649314866,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-15T17:40:47.212Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1609.7475630849967,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-15T20:10:46.528Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1831.6976422483954,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-18T01:15:58.368Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1447.474520482756,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-19T01:01:32.846Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1633.299944483046,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-19T05:31:15.408Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1859.1929840102757,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-19T18:46:27.341Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1638.6592348549211,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-19T20:02:13.079Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1864.1884840006217,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-19T21:15:40.107Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1639.416276000407,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-19T22:01:46.059Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1864.875911889889,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-19T23:16:15.891Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1640.0282431478274,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-20T06:30:37.148Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1867.8052231799188,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T11:45:34.181Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1929.796331203163,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T21:15:28.752Z","priceCents":7,"iy":2233.520507330579,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T21:30:54.506Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1933.405188296853,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-29T01:00:26.628Z","priceCents":7,"iy":2245.476302931919,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-29T01:30:25.644Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1943.8539944520855,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T21:15:30.565Z","priceCents":7,"iy":2286.1695664999543,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T22:00:44.625Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1979.1779633445394,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T22:15:33.283Z","priceCents":7,"iy":2286.611550874328,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T22:31:06.509Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1979.3739566730483,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T23:15:32.508Z","priceCents":7,"iy":2287.064492591043,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T02:01:11.337Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1980.7376507672852,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T04:00:26.568Z","priceCents":7,"iy":2289.2022084782416,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T14:30:31.153Z","priceCents":16,"iy":932.9584459212736,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T14:46:03.761Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1091.6779984628172,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T15:00:28.872Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1189.3815253523105,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T15:16:04.135Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1303.3767684047189,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T15:30:29.886Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1091.8427968984568,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T15:45:51.692Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1189.5668747862394,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T19:00:54.299Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1600.814783049394,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T19:15:32.389Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1798.5338821799219,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T19:31:12.453Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1600.978619503185,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T20:45:29.741Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1799.0862386016802,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T21:46:44.368Z","priceCents":11,"iy":1439.9232631936823,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-09T18:15:30.886Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1310.5560968603777,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-10T22:46:05.582Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1617.8201535574808,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-11T12:30:36.929Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1822.685589891078,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T09:45:32.453Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1629.5208662999212,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T16:31:05.750Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1833.2516469736308,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T19:15:36.166Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1632.7200071571287,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T18:15:40.657Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1843.075302790943,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T19:45:44.219Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1641.047672809564,"cri":9}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["IY 1642%","26 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 9.0"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 9c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"polymarket","marketId":"0x2c41ac56695e28bd7bca361bffde6977e6211406e19fb26ec98037661f23c35f","marketTitle":"Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":9},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SBF","reason":"Same market on kalshi"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x0146bc6b56b60b7451fe1aa786f0f795390ba3fd2d454b005925fac454c2f831","reason":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Bob Menendez"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x07d4883660832eb7b64be2f4dba5870eb3ff4ae764e79893d6f574eaa075f7cf","reason":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Edward Snowden"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x1b53ad65dae4809d3d1097bbcd6be1f44ba5cddd47be9ce21896722c7d79681a","reason":"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Nicolas Maduro"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20pardon%20Sam%20Bankman-Fried%20before%202027%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":187}