{"ticker":"0x30a1d62f46f58d036cccd96b0e468ff3165e238cd3bef03441370ad3c1fd1b86","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","price":5,"bestBid":5,"bestAsk":5,"spread":0,"volume":13477.319749000006,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":20103.63953,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-12-31","liquidityScore":"high","indicators":{"tauDays":245,"iyYes":2827.6691606695067,"iyNo":7.832878561411379,"cri":19,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.03,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.341,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":0,"observability":"low","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.15},"computedAt":"2026-04-29T18:06:01.394Z","fresh":false},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"0x066f2341d819cd15d2562bddd08b99584dcce1e546b6a4749643e221fae8ea0b","connectedTitle":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:79932","groupLabel":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x713ab27f31c1d8080ea3b9c21c8a021609f8fcb7aad13a87b8b069265e7fdfda","connectedTitle":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:79932","groupLabel":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xabb74975229f7e4fcd68de841df580bfb6b1fd6a43c3f2607612eed07b93f6b1","connectedTitle":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:79932","groupLabel":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xa9433e26ddb6e037fd5c7c7451f77829740822fa12e2bdf82406624661434ba0","connectedTitle":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:79932","groupLabel":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xea04718a275364e2b7d11e29e10a4f74b24ceb647602cce99ae2b4500f3d245c","connectedTitle":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:79932","groupLabel":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x5759fb62768738cda38232974fa399fd8bfbbe6c04d891a2c4cdb71731f8f692","connectedTitle":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:79932","groupLabel":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x4fa0dfa81109ade4f993b63f5ea4c9ee5e01ff546b7ddc9708d441ca691eb39a","connectedTitle":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:79932","groupLabel":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xf06d28ca471354ee70ec6e1dff6284a15ced43bcaa70fafcdc6cc32f485598c8","connectedTitle":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:79932","groupLabel":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x43ede6f447b4eb54904ca21aaa7d98a73a95a47ccf2195ea82073749d8ea45e9","connectedTitle":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:79932","groupLabel":"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T07:07:43.562Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1383.7697946988058,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-09T09:52:17.270Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1236.8735150928692,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-09T10:07:24.612Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1389.6315039482022,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-09T12:52:40.143Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1237.4605877278566,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-09T13:07:29.807Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1390.2858719078542,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-10T08:55:53.628Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1241.3652372386898,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-10T09:00:55.394Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1394.641285580883,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-10T10:00:53.773Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1241.576367340305,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-10T11:16:00.991Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1395.1315934826373,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-10T11:20:32.865Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1241.8392073398936,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-10T11:46:11.689Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1395.2423558865662,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T18:50:54.446Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1262.417616201987,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T15:50:33.026Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1423.056819447658,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T08:45:53.916Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1641.989555420815,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T08:50:30.890Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1443.6985805984993,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T08:55:32.171Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1642.0345189102914,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T20:10:22.190Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1923.1063393675076,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-24T09:00:25.176Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2281.6292601828764,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T23:35:17.843Z","priceCents":5,"iy":2796.1792941612866,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T11:45:50.626Z","priceCents":50,"iy":148.06701553689504,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T12:45:57.982Z","priceCents":5,"iy":2813.7526981190254,"cri":19}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Low observability — insufficient data for conviction","positives":["IY 2828%","tight LAS 0.000","9 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 19.0"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 5c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"polymarket","marketId":"0x30a1d62f46f58d036cccd96b0e468ff3165e238cd3bef03441370ad3c1fd1b86","marketTitle":"Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":5},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x066f2341d819cd15d2562bddd08b99584dcce1e546b6a4749643e221fae8ea0b","reason":"How many different countries will the US conduct military ac"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x713ab27f31c1d8080ea3b9c21c8a021609f8fcb7aad13a87b8b069265e7fdfda","reason":"How many different countries will the US conduct military ac"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xabb74975229f7e4fcd68de841df580bfb6b1fd6a43c3f2607612eed07b93f6b1","reason":"How many different countries will the US conduct military ac"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20US%20strike%2010%20countries%20in%202026%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":2183}