{"ticker":"0x3a39018720ae04cfa3ecf6945359192eec2198fb9847672b9879b29e17b2c592","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","price":94,"bestBid":93,"bestAsk":94,"spread":1,"volume":132834.4120279997,"volume24h":2365.455096999999,"openInterest":19717.6307,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-12-31","liquidityScore":"high","indicators":{"tauDays":245,"iyYes":9.5124029137663,"iyNo":2334.766448501079,"cri":15.667,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.0106,"cvr":null,"overround":null,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.409,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"observability":"medium","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.3},"computedAt":"2026-04-30T02:06:27.692Z","fresh":false},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"0xe20838e0d89930c4deccefed1cebd5723eb3611b6168a63514300a3939f5618a","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Macron - France President","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x5b2acdcefaa34108ed0ccfa33d92f754b60af717f8905cbaec24c37e411f4f3b","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Erdoğan - Türkiye President","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xcff2073f13a60dca2e9d19a18e318f088bab9d2a84607e687c14ecbe36894478","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x8e2f2a0a2e715c54be5bf213df03b5f13e5a878f5f233ea9b638c0a62063a77d","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Xi - General Secretary of the CCP","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x6f416ddd0d4e15ad8d76fff96851a154c16713a26aafc753173c49acf5c6eb74","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Netanyahu - Israel PM","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xd9901ef1d9fbab09dfbf78ebbd90782456f44c0ef57ac1691ae69e6b4759c2a4","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Albanese - Australia PM","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x3c60f112f8235c99c99b69922a5a50bff912a18c9d35352a06df96132e9edbac","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Newsom - California Governor","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x9936785c8bd8c16c5a7436c642ccbd375f4dd20cdc6700e56b7724e113607054","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Milei - Argentina President","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xc3fab30f17f5856b8e4d5b8d63f090d1ea88c2fa0721292204c493803ee68a40","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Starmer - UK PM","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x96fd9357d0245c7cb8316c3f838026086deb2457693ea1958862b769e3032952","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Trump - USA President","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x85a96cbc8c3dc059ef461a17001efd347c1d000c6cad6c2b32f7e866bfd66e3a","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Zelenskyy - Ukraine President","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xd79fe765f7e2adfbaa07429050cf179647f409202f12c93879e966f1da99ecaa","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Putin - Russia President","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xa73a98fdb8ad6d042680dac7f20836dc17156fd7a13c6388957a48e05068fe02","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Lula da Silva - Brazil President","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x8f7d31eb8b240ca579189cd7c21ff295b3cf4d29bb40b9be68025817fb0672f4","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Lecornu - France PM","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xe111b1ee12df2943a3e7c2f860f2cf38b1e00d9091450dee18b18989cdd2a990","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Takaichi - Japan PM","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x5b10c26682077225010f27701151020b3a69fbbf81f3e02353cf2499fe889245","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Abbas - President of Palestine","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x1690499c62aab886fd6f057e0e385454da7cd0c06c103daa5a28f98a9022f08a","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Merz - German Chancellor","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xdf0d55165cf7e35058ccafd772737823686b7f53cc846735152cd4b4b34bdd40","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Sánchez - Spanish PM","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x37e18924db74da1bfe2a1c5ec3b098596e51cf6199bb6edd84bad2fdfbeccab2","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Sheinbaum - Mexico President","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x5e02b629947c0d067d1be44a977a0b790eb34026beefb83ae165261710fd70fe","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Díaz-Canel - Cuba President","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x4ea7001ce0bd4617c78b109b3412a65c204d7d24e0e283f5661843ae28435f98","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Petro - Colombia President","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x688db85f462d33d1c0413eb9725377b2cc8255ea5e7db82c230dbb92ee07e0c9","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x7877ce086d302b90007cf299d4bef4b0962776acc0817c8582ca17314ecd5d3b","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: al-Sharaa - Syria President","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x5eb41992936d1d364f705c4b795929054d9180205c65f74fe3e346363c6bf212","connectedTitle":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: None before 2027","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:241861","groupLabel":"Next leader out of power before 2027?"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T04:50:12.520Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1941.2828422508255,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T05:00:20.432Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1680.4048184282071,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T07:00:58.873Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1941.9825212991648,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T11:35:58.136Z","priceCents":94,"iy":2291.7610156155,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T11:40:57.928Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1943.500224150933,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T12:15:55.798Z","priceCents":94,"iy":2292.0182185720923,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T20:00:31.471Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1946.2068317048545,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T20:05:31.779Z","priceCents":94,"iy":2295.017050418131,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T22:50:32.950Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1947.1289527664214,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T22:56:06.410Z","priceCents":94,"iy":2296.113672015117,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T00:30:31.612Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1947.668564130195,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T05:55:38.550Z","priceCents":87,"iy":981.9750144489947,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T06:05:51.931Z","priceCents":88,"iy":1076.0642047175297,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T06:20:24.872Z","priceCents":90,"iy":1320.677344654574,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T06:40:25.719Z","priceCents":89,"iy":1187.3424217326246,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T07:11:19.956Z","priceCents":90,"iy":1320.8685162846807,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T08:50:15.386Z","priceCents":91,"iy":1484.3445556306335,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T10:15:24.438Z","priceCents":90,"iy":1321.5433695534111,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T10:55:24.501Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1688.8289846909022,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T11:15:25.467Z","priceCents":91,"iy":1484.9477753501803,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T11:25:25.975Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1688.971688850977,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T12:00:37.883Z","priceCents":91,"iy":1485.1330203442885,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T12:15:26.624Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1689.2095827179483,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T17:25:28.558Z","priceCents":91,"iy":1486.4849140689548,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T18:15:28.041Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1690.9107755026419,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T00:50:46.324Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1955.6331394695696,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T02:05:37.135Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1693.1342850112753,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T09:25:53.244Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1958.460671259584,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T15:05:36.932Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1696.8440116262627,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T17:00:36.714Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1960.9632838581742,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T17:40:38.644Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1697.5851623574908,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T17:55:46.485Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1961.2646618183471,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T18:40:38.303Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1697.8666947116367,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T18:55:35.823Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1961.5978715695167,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T19:35:36.790Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1698.127710531427,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T23:45:37.256Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1963.1940869947443,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T06:10:52.313Z","priceCents":94,"iy":2317.5354553879474,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T08:40:45.962Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1966.1551400375117,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T09:15:48.379Z","priceCents":94,"iy":2318.738325209975,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T11:45:54.110Z","priceCents":53,"iy":166.96918773309443,"cri":1.128},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T12:05:48.655Z","priceCents":52,"iy":160.41504392228137,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T12:21:04.965Z","priceCents":53,"iy":166.98612275832247,"cri":1.128},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T12:36:06.248Z","priceCents":50,"iy":148.08804138350746,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T12:46:00.951Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1967.511285150899,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T13:01:06.085Z","priceCents":94,"iy":2320.2060121129475,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T13:16:07.146Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1967.678938792405,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T13:31:02.919Z","priceCents":94,"iy":2320.4037272541573,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T17:50:53.656Z","priceCents":95,"iy":2816.175037359493,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T01:35:43.041Z","priceCents":96,"iy":3561.931249847517,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T20:05:52.746Z","priceCents":94,"iy":2332.46180432338,"cri":15.667}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["tight LAS 0.011","24 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 15.7"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 85c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"polymarket","marketId":"0x3a39018720ae04cfa3ecf6945359192eec2198fb9847672b9879b29e17b2c592","marketTitle":"Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":85},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xe20838e0d89930c4deccefed1cebd5723eb3611b6168a63514300a3939f5618a","reason":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Macron - France Presi"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x5b2acdcefaa34108ed0ccfa33d92f754b60af717f8905cbaec24c37e411f4f3b","reason":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Erdoğan - Türkiye Pre"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xcff2073f13a60dca2e9d19a18e318f088bab9d2a84607e687c14ecbe36894478","reason":"Next leader out of power before 2027?: Kim - Supreme Leader "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Viktor%20Orb%C3%A1n%20be%20the%20next%20leader%20out%20before%202027%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":3316}