{"ticker":"0x4ec6ada6365a8cfc2a36493903e7af4311513e90fa9cbf4defefab1d912a9971","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","price":33,"bestBid":5,"bestAsk":15,"spread":10,"volume":11705.941514999986,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":200.41312,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-12-31","liquidityScore":"low","indicators":{"tauDays":246,"iyYes":1333.0844367971886,"iyNo":16.45783255305171,"cri":9,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":5.6,"cvr":null,"overround":null,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.341,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":10,"bidDepthUsd":21138,"askDepthUsd":1344,"volume24h":0,"observability":"low","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.15},"computedAt":"2026-04-28T14:08:08.128Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXBOYCOTTWC-26","connectedTitle":"Will any NATO member state boycott the USA World Cup in 2026?: Before 2026","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"KXSTARMERMENTIONB-26APR29-NATO","connectedTitle":"What will Keir Starmer say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of C","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHEGSETHMENTION-26APR29-NATO","connectedTitle":"What will Pete Hegseth say during House Armed Services Committee - Department of","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"KXKINGMENTION-26APR28C-NATO","connectedTitle":"What will King Charles III say during Joint Meeting of Congress Address?: NATO","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"0x6beb95a01147de25b24d3ffae7a43551f392da4235a62f058515c3e99d7af199","connectedTitle":"NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?: June 30, 2026","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"0x663ab202c03a5e1d399578d44a3b124307db73caba79b2ead36c52ce6094b2d4","connectedTitle":"Will any country leave NATO by...?: June 30, 2026","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"0x523959b6256674318eb34755789fffd8c62cd652e5fa11ffd332402361d058e9","connectedTitle":"Will any country leave NATO by...?: December 31, 2026","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"0x495e6b49e7397bb4e6f8ce69e246ccb33b744678bd9bf88cbecbd3a113b05423","connectedTitle":"Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?: June 30, 2026","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"0xbad704f2ae063322169bf3add805258727ecd3e6c0ad37fc7e6590c993375732","connectedTitle":"NATO x Russia military clash by...?: June 30","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"0xf2bf04609e7458df56c9bb4b1e051286dea11da1c944bbc1dafbcc6b76904e52","connectedTitle":"NATO x Russia military clash by...?: December 31","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"0xe7743a393cd98bb7a7cd011361b74a0fd12bac3412643873f4661fcc431ed165","connectedTitle":"NATO article 5 before 2027?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"0x5caf6459052e0fcc736c368f97b5ea98e6bf264507f2e94ac8d69fcc441b1bae","connectedTitle":"Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? ","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"0x09bd898af149ff142f72abd30709dadf4fedafcce3b00ef37fd62a733063d7c9","connectedTitle":"Will US withdraw from NATO by...?: December 31","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"0x74d91fa19bbdae4b7afba167f3d297d7c135d87053b1433d1d71d966da64550b","connectedTitle":"Will US withdraw from NATO by...?: April 30","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"0x85177fe9a496ab6369104add4ec3f2896c72e139b324310cfa59fab523303b0f","connectedTitle":"Will US withdraw from NATO by...?: June 30","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"0x48c2b06383f2bfe38ce3c68fc7623586b11817d061f52ecada284c82eb717f39","connectedTitle":"Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"0x9772347ce628f4427ab437333679512aba5a98a4d14ff2a138f99fe7a40ba5fe","connectedTitle":"Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? ","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"0x17bfc4455ae7c4a8bafa37d5581c21307bb9b1ef298798d81ffc10009fa79c91","connectedTitle":"EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?: December 31","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"0x1fa4c5e080e59674d14625faa0360cc7716c92fc063cfdb8506af2dd5af469ab","connectedTitle":"EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?: June 30","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"},{"connectedTicker":"0xf3fe597da58af1ccd31a976c1a7d5a4ab27b7fc6dea99a1f66e223db3f681de8","connectedTitle":"NATO dissolves before 2027?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:nato_security","groupLabel":"NATO / security"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T11:45:52.593Z","priceCents":51,"iy":154.11056719146222,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T12:05:47.546Z","priceCents":50,"iy":148.07542515902895,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T12:45:59.972Z","priceCents":33,"iy":300.6721383954939,"cri":2.03},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T12:50:58.178Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1332.8464487858316,"cri":9}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["IY 1333%","20 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 9.0","illiquid (LAS 5.60)"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBOYCOTTWC-26","reason":"Will any NATO member state boycott the USA World Cup in 2026"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXSTARMERMENTIONB-26APR29-NATO","reason":"What will Keir Starmer say during next Prime Minister's Ques"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHEGSETHMENTION-26APR29-NATO","reason":"What will Pete Hegseth say during House Armed Services Commi"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20NATO%20countries%20clash%20with%20each%20other%20before%202027%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":2611}