{"ticker":"0x5b9cb2fbdfb50eae19a1fdd228487ff797fab1539a1e74565b5e6ad3b586368b","venue":"polymarket","title":"US defaults on debt by 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.","price":5,"bestBid":4,"bestAsk":5,"spread":1,"volume":14769.307950000004,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":24893.66173,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-12-31","liquidityScore":"high","indicators":{"tauDays":253,"iyYes":2740.0453579245977,"iyNo":7.590153346051519,"cri":19,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.4,"cvr":null,"overround":null,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.341,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":23922,"askDepthUsd":1271168,"volume24h":0,"observability":"low","eventType":"financial","asPrior":0.15},"computedAt":"2026-04-21T21:51:59.996Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":{"ticker":"KXDEFAULT-26DEC31","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2026?: Defaults","confidenceScore":0.78,"priceCents":null},"contagion":[],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T15:40:51.201Z","priceCents":4,"iy":3364.7401352809907,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T15:45:52.898Z","priceCents":5,"iy":2663.793533914873,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-16T03:35:54.584Z","priceCents":4,"iy":3384.1993432489858,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-16T03:40:55.989Z","priceCents":5,"iy":2679.188864464336,"cri":19}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["IY 2740%"],"warnings":["cliff risk 19.0","illiquid (LAS 0.40)"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXDEFAULT-26DEC31","reason":"Same market on kalshi"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=US%20defaults%20on%20debt%20by%202027%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":6484}