{"ticker":"0x5ca616aaa0e1e5df6c38439f8bee4b96bacfe32f8f39cb2f1604c0196548662f","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","price":3,"bestBid":3,"bestAsk":3,"spread":0,"volume":853164.3423550035,"volume24h":10530.11587,"openInterest":80708.86285,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-09-30","liquidityScore":"high","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest deployment since 2003. Pacifi","thesisSlug":"china-taiwan-window","thesisPrice":6,"edge":3,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-06-03T06:04:19.505Z","firstDetectedPrice":3}],"indicators":{"tauDays":114,"iyYes":10385.13434236771,"iyNo":9.933702740069018,"cri":32.333,"ee":3,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0,"cvr":null,"overround":null,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.335,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":0,"sfEdgeCents":3,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes","observability":"low","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.15},"computedAt":"2026-06-08T08:43:34.245Z","fresh":false},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-16T15:45:40.465Z","priceCents":6,"iy":4194.079148422239,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-16T16:30:50.155Z","priceCents":5,"iy":5087.593168613181,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T14:30:48.427Z","priceCents":4,"iy":6666.920354655808,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T14:45:59.799Z","priceCents":3,"iy":8982.506881810457,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T15:31:09.340Z","priceCents":4,"iy":6669.052096259697,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T15:45:48.778Z","priceCents":3,"iy":8985.379248735499,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-25T13:45:46.143Z","priceCents":4,"iy":6874.524237406515,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-25T16:30:25.827Z","priceCents":3,"iy":9269.877675840979,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-30T18:30:45.102Z","priceCents":2,"iy":14632.370386733097,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-31T13:00:38.587Z","priceCents":4,"iy":7212.369708047226,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-31T20:45:30.287Z","priceCents":2,"iy":14764.518925166138,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-31T21:15:36.731Z","priceCents":3,"iy":9744.262980883024,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T13:01:23.125Z","priceCents":4,"iy":7272.304639829981,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T14:30:41.746Z","priceCents":3,"iy":9802.455805196785,"cri":32.333}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Low observability — insufficient data for conviction","positives":["IY 10385%","tight LAS 0.000"],"warnings":["cliff risk 32.3"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 3c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"polymarket","marketId":"0x5ca616aaa0e1e5df6c38439f8bee4b96bacfe32f8f39cb2f1604c0196548662f","marketTitle":"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":3},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20China%20invade%20Taiwan%20by%20September%2030%2C%202026%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":141}