{"ticker":"0x84a6824d41a823829b98f3f9c5155437f34182fbed5ed505c09312bc423ce79d","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02?","description":"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","price":85,"bestBid":84,"bestAsk":85,"spread":1,"volume":1329.8480100000002,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":5174.8133,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-06-16","liquidityScore":"high","indicators":{"tauDays":38,"iyYes":170.74931661289497,"iyNo":5482.95027790296,"cri":5.667,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.0235,"cvr":null,"overround":0.01,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.432,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":1198,"askDepthUsd":1405,"volume24h":0,"observability":"medium","eventType":"unknown","asPrior":0.35},"computedAt":"2026-05-09T06:44:38.125Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"0x4ea35c8951c420b408b8a2a561959eaa09bd38cf50a9cae93a660db8bb209dd7","connectedTitle":"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: James Osyf","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:90367","groupLabel":"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner"},{"connectedTicker":"0xc337abbce2e8618893305d5750f260c9d4c904c44d4b3e6803babe71a79b67ca","connectedTitle":"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: Matt Strickler","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:90367","groupLabel":"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner"},{"connectedTicker":"0xd31952a79a0d37cb53156546b0a5af887f7b2a695b3ce08a93c1b7680e6a8966","connectedTitle":"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: Patrick Mosolf","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:90367","groupLabel":"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner"},{"connectedTicker":"0xba2bfb003ed5efa28cdf204209b13e89a568feb4660727f34a8a2a8e70a1c37f","connectedTitle":"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: Burk Stringfellow","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:90367","groupLabel":"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner"},{"connectedTicker":"0xa1ce17164121ccacfd343ce0cb8e040b271c2c03cb3da317704f9af0a8646025","connectedTitle":"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: Nila Devanath","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:90367","groupLabel":"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner"},{"connectedTicker":"0x9d616524d75eb02d02b8cb7526f6eedb861a466519f20ff7c1dcdadd560e1815","connectedTitle":"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: Nicolaus Sleister","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:90367","groupLabel":"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T12:10:53.373Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5108.004873390628,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T12:15:48.417Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5537.659258422922,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T13:25:43.352Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5114.573030003297,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T13:30:46.605Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5544.780416803564,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T13:40:43.724Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5115.8380740374305,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T17:21:28.008Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5566.807004352005,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T17:45:42.820Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5137.439973505548,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T06:15:58.431Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5642.172317227049,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T06:25:45.711Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5205.711601060439,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T06:30:19.155Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5643.5924819221655,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T06:45:32.974Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5207.546536415059,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T06:50:22.174Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5645.581913994351,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T07:25:54.739Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5211.22029058537,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T08:06:14.719Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5653.1260580476455,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T09:30:49.164Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5222.536444130222,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T09:36:27.700Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5661.976911976911,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T09:40:54.729Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5223.459689707132,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T09:45:41.036Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5662.977943431558,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T09:55:23.646Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5224.779178349794,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T10:00:56.187Z","priceCents":87,"iy":6171.064112604672,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T10:05:50.667Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5664.981068604201,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T10:25:58.669Z","priceCents":87,"iy":6173.871623132333,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T10:45:44.306Z","priceCents":88,"iy":6767.462243797197,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T11:45:44.257Z","priceCents":87,"iy":6182.465977454587,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T11:50:55.050Z","priceCents":88,"iy":6775.342142121872,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T13:16:36.822Z","priceCents":87,"iy":6192.339867904549,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T15:00:40.315Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5694.331065759637,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T20:30:20.966Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5283.63902655018,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T21:55:32.694Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5736.434675185123,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T22:20:29.780Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5294.052403013471,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T20:05:33.798Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5875.174533298896,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T20:10:33.803Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5420.302768241655,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T20:40:50.685Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5879.025793546743,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T21:35:32.293Z","priceCents":87,"iy":6411.265899454876,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T22:10:31.967Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5888.598742364893,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T22:15:31.818Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5432.546248872779,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T22:20:32.041Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5889.681518145622,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T22:25:32.494Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5433.545245976286,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T22:50:41.956Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5892.932235972605,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T01:45:53.193Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5453.602629682364,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T02:00:38.487Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5913.44777176616,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T02:05:44.896Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5455.472617132206,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T02:15:41.486Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5915.007801252723,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T02:20:42.627Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5457.055916134593,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T02:45:42.491Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5918.286543863949,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T02:50:48.034Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5460.0811312619335,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T03:45:42.320Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5924.854945809942,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T05:15:52.014Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5474.533054533584,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T05:20:44.409Z","priceCents":86,"iy":5935.206229035807,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T05:25:44.306Z","priceCents":85,"iy":5475.547554755475,"cri":5.667}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["IY 171%","tight LAS 0.024","6 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 5.7"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 77c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"polymarket","marketId":"0x84a6824d41a823829b98f3f9c5155437f34182fbed5ed505c09312bc423ce79d","marketTitle":"Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":77},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x4ea35c8951c420b408b8a2a561959eaa09bd38cf50a9cae93a660db8bb209dd7","reason":"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: James Osyf"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xc337abbce2e8618893305d5750f260c9d4c904c44d4b3e6803babe71a79b67ca","reason":"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: Matt Strickler"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xd31952a79a0d37cb53156546b0a5af887f7b2a695b3ce08a93c1b7680e6a8966","reason":"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: Patrick Mosolf"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Elaine%20Luria%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20VA-02%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":74}