{"ticker":"0x8b20a1909e9d77949705d9b196f6abad258b5240185aa646052bc1c2b876e735","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will any AI model reach 1525 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","price":93,"bestBid":92,"bestAsk":94,"spread":2,"volume":1363.384337,"volume24h":348.64,"openInterest":3041.0256,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-12-31","liquidityScore":"high","indicators":{"tauDays":249,"iyYes":11.054468677022381,"iyNo":1951.2265221952389,"cri":13.286,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.0215,"cvr":null,"overround":1.32,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":2},"computedAt":"2026-04-26T11:35:37.087Z","fresh":false},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"0x59ee6ea91056116e8ed99a6d11d60872c3a4f89892551f1db12e2752380c9874","connectedTitle":"Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?: 1550","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:336508","groupLabel":"Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x356dd951d62105a067f97bd17a13b3034ae4df3ca8868b9f6ee9a33a9d98ce2e","connectedTitle":"Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?: 1575","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:336508","groupLabel":"Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x4636a5f0ca6503ed0613aea84803fc3ba51aa29d294b8772714f006936d40d5f","connectedTitle":"Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?: 1600","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:336508","groupLabel":"Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T11:55:56.194Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1682.3445008677265,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T12:00:57.030Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1943.6092787088196,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T12:25:59.478Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1682.486111222454,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T12:36:00.424Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1943.7962578557845,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T14:16:02.375Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1682.9988051610637,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T14:40:57.584Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1944.4743589449847,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T14:46:00.442Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1683.1405256932064,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T14:51:00.621Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1944.5289393681626,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T15:00:58.406Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1683.214769783539,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T17:01:04.560Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1945.2309607188859,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T17:06:01.611Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1683.7954494400058,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T17:10:57.135Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1945.2855836257913,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T17:31:01.453Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1683.9170377502317,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T17:36:00.100Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1945.4182520292368,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T17:41:04.640Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1683.964326835512,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T17:46:01.825Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1945.4728854552347,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T17:56:02.154Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1684.0318872791916,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T18:11:01.093Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1945.6133854991208,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T23:25:32.153Z","priceCents":94,"iy":2296.298081041718,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T01:15:32.321Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1947.911095604591,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T01:20:32.503Z","priceCents":94,"iy":2297.0360134541615,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T05:00:49.667Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1949.1403283421498,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T05:05:38.674Z","priceCents":94,"iy":2298.476346661948,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T06:15:26.935Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1949.5478048419095,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T06:20:26.094Z","priceCents":94,"iy":2298.956859213515,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T06:40:26.709Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1949.6810552688214,"cri":13.286}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["tight LAS 0.021","3 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 13.3"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 84c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"polymarket","marketId":"0x8b20a1909e9d77949705d9b196f6abad258b5240185aa646052bc1c2b876e735","marketTitle":"Will any AI model reach 1525 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":84},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x59ee6ea91056116e8ed99a6d11d60872c3a4f89892551f1db12e2752380c9874","reason":"Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x356dd951d62105a067f97bd17a13b3034ae4df3ca8868b9f6ee9a33a9d98ce2e","reason":"Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x4636a5f0ca6503ed0613aea84803fc3ba51aa29d294b8772714f006936d40d5f","reason":"Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20any%20AI%20model%20reach%201525%20Math%20Arena%20Score%20by%20December%2031","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":1805}