{"ticker":"0x90452ee2a372f901764dabc1812cd0d450c1239e10a44722627647ec060f32a1","venue":"polymarket","title":"Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".","price":3,"bestBid":3,"bestAsk":4,"spread":1,"volume":34173.01677399999,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":19368.85615,"status":"open","closeTime":"2028-01-01","liquidityScore":"high","indicators":{"tauDays":619,"iyYes":1416.318380611313,"iyNo":2.458886077450196,"cri":24,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.25,"cvr":null,"overround":1.81,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":59476,"askDepthUsd":62489,"volume24h":0},"computedAt":"2026-04-22T11:59:14.930Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"0xbd549c211a4b156b03a37401348ffaf6b8fcce0182e3bb48f58179ccd1fc4094","connectedTitle":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:103469","groupLabel":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x81f132356dec87d798a84d37bacad685cb5c0dd4cf2e19b9159131a4a1474987","connectedTitle":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $4B","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:103469","groupLabel":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x88b2827dd9bb9b3ebd4f229561a7606bd2bbdedbf3dfbb9c563e1e7dd2673747","connectedTitle":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:103469","groupLabel":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x99bee2c9dd32672867497f42c3193360bf625e43842e83827c747070b65f364d","connectedTitle":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $3B","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:103469","groupLabel":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xf5082588e782e5437ac1bcfe4bd6d8fe7ced8c2519118f3ad25c2956da63bbd0","connectedTitle":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $5B","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:103469","groupLabel":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x76e7f72aef4e8533e5f3e6672f223899682d52849e022cac8592a7a4f56cb1a7","connectedTitle":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:103469","groupLabel":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x1aabd7e8fe19085c7ba902d5002d1fbb9116473fb89bdfcd3be5478017916013","connectedTitle":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:103469","groupLabel":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x195b7365dc4011dc6f7e1acb52cb42c6a54ebea9b8ef00b84a0cadb985412ca6","connectedTitle":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:103469","groupLabel":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xcb0435359047119a7c21536b540a98362a079cabb684746939faf9df9ab4774f","connectedTitle":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:103469","groupLabel":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T11:01:02.544Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1898.7752484014195,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T13:35:23.883Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1409.6428582922726,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T19:00:21.253Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1899.7930913102643,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T19:10:21.493Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1410.1715869742645,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T08:20:51.474Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1901.494986992174,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T21:45:33.244Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1412.6913221081356,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T21:50:34.904Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1903.218350024459,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T23:20:33.612Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1412.8416988292445,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T23:25:32.692Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1903.4209428452236,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T23:30:33.187Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1412.857649753234,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T23:35:39.407Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1903.4424324924423,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T23:56:08.365Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1412.8963892110198,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T01:25:33.254Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1903.6757798994852,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T01:45:32.002Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1413.0696033565243,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T01:55:33.468Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1903.7402675614062,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T02:00:52.548Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1413.094677343382,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T02:25:32.641Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1903.8047595925577,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T02:30:33.247Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1413.1425483347987,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T02:50:52.125Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1903.8600419542893,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T02:55:32.651Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1413.1813034177692,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T06:40:47.413Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1904.348508955091,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T07:20:47.119Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1413.6009062537316,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T07:35:46.533Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1904.468359897991,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T07:55:54.902Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1413.6556554295028,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T08:25:40.888Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1904.5728576446772,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T08:30:36.368Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1413.712690330754,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T11:20:44.434Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1904.947914564929,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T16:20:27.242Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1414.456846956092,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T16:55:28.463Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1905.6615452517249,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T17:00:28.685Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1414.5207987844162,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T19:45:29.746Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1906.024717757066,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T19:50:50.602Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1414.7903736112523,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T20:30:47.689Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1906.1232290766573,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T20:50:37.741Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1414.8840634953453,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T04:25:28.576Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1907.1366394318613,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T04:55:31.093Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1415.654619058008,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T05:00:44.367Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1907.2136903521007,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T05:15:27.839Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1415.686648426503,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T05:55:34.062Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1907.3308196754872,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T06:00:40.125Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1415.7575757575758,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T06:20:21.907Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1907.3832242938295,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T08:50:23.453Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1416.027622237453,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T10:05:20.840Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1907.8642482244281,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T10:10:32.340Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1416.1558159385424,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T10:20:22.155Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1907.898175735717,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T10:25:22.130Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1416.1787101133914,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T10:45:21.237Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1907.950611535759,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T11:00:21.777Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1416.2359487891667,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T11:36:25.221Z","priceCents":3,"iy":1908.0616615684428,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T11:40:24.351Z","priceCents":4,"iy":1416.2977717561769,"cri":24}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["IY 1416%","9 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 24.0","illiquid (LAS 0.25)"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xbd549c211a4b156b03a37401348ffaf6b8fcce0182e3bb48f58179ccd1fc4094","reason":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x81f132356dec87d798a84d37bacad685cb5c0dd4cf2e19b9159131a4a1474987","reason":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $4B"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x88b2827dd9bb9b3ebd4f229561a7606bd2bbdedbf3dfbb9c563e1e7dd2673747","reason":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Variational%20FDV%20above%20%242B%20one%20day%20after%20launch%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":1977}